Drapier On The Doorstep: 'Alan, stay in Nenagh for God’s sake, Joan is the boss'

The bags have been packed for weeks around Leinster House, and Drapier has been chomping at the bit since budget day. There was never going to be any real surprise about the date of the election, so it's hard to explain the curious lack of bounce in the campaign these first 10 days. It has been a spluttering start for sure, with little sense of how or when it will ignite.

The early messing about 'fiscal space' was an irritant, and largely self-inflicted. How could Noonan and Howlin read Merrion Street's forecasts one way, and Doherty be gifted with another, apparently more accurate account? In the end it was nothing more than an early run down the field of play by Sinn Fein, but it showed what a useful player can do with a loose ball and a bit of initiative.

Drapier thinks that any advantage accruing to Sinn Fein was well and truly eclipsed once the horror of the Regency Hotel and Ballybough murders began to sink in. No end of pleading for economic credibility by Pearse Doherty can fix that. Persisting with the demand for abolition of the Special Criminal Court, even as Thomas 'Slab' Murphy awaits sentencing there for tax evasion, won't affect committed Sinn Fein voters, but it may halt the party's advance.

Enda had a less than impressive first week. But he has plenty of fight in him. Boxing off a deal with Labour was always about more than attracting transfers. It was about having a proposition (re-elect the government) that had credibility, even if it risks falling short on account of likely Labour losses. For the smaller party it makes sense too. RTE's David Davin-Power framed the election on day 1 with the central question of the campaign: can Labour be a viable partner in the next government?

The polls are saying they won't. But if Labour can hold its nerve, stay focussed, and navigate cleverly between its twin positions of government partner and sensible left-wing option, it will survive the expected storm. Keeping Alan Kelly out of national sight is an essential element of this plan. Drapier hears that this is a view shared by many in Labour. So, Alan, stay in Nenagh for God's sake, Joan is the boss - for now anyway.

As for Micheál he started well and had a good leaders debate on TV3. But along with his team he has the appearance of a man all dressed up with nowhere to go. It has been said that the collapse of Fianna Fail as the natural party of government is the single biggest shock to hit the Irish political psyche since the 1920s. While the economy really is in recovery, and the voters are grudgingly accepting this, Fianna Fail is far from the kind of recovery that would place them back where they stood for so long - largely because they are still blamed for the economic crash.

Like his colleagues, Drapier has been battling storm Imogen and her relatives, and canvassing hard. On the airwaves, there is much about the folly of election “promises”. But there is no shortage of demand on the doorsteps for better health services, childcare, housing and the rest. When the parties respond with spending commitments, however limited or prudent, these are dismissed as cynical election promises - sometimes by the same people who are (not unreasonably) demanding more resources. Drapier doesn’t pretend to have the solution to this puzzle.

So after a week, what's the mood? Drapier finds it far more accommodating than in 2014, but infused still with a lingering anger and a sense of uncertainty. Some question the appeal of the "stability" narrative, but its strength may only emerge closer to polling day. People feel they were burned. We are still living in the backwash of an economic collapse, and its legacy issues like housing are very real. Voters know there is a recovery, but they are sceptical. In some cases they are fearful. Working class men of a certain age, are especially angry and feel completely disenfranchised. In a different political scenario here a Donald Trump or a Marine Le Pen might really thrive.

As it is, there is surprisingly little mention of Independents on the doors. Drapier thinks that the established ones will be re-elected, less for what they are offering than as a magnet for continuing disaffection. They will profit from anti-party, and anti-government (anti- any government) sentiment. But what will they do? What can they do? No-one really knows, least of all themselves it seems.

As always, media coverage is dominated by polls. There isn’t much comfort there for the government. Neither is there any route to government discernible for the main opposition parties, unless FF and FG shake off their mutual distaste for coalition with one another.

One final thought strikes Drapier. The polls are measuring party support at a time when there is precious little affection for most of them. The Labour brand has clearly taken a hammering. But will this pass through to all of its candidates? Only time will tell. Certainly, the polls don’t point to any alternative emerging as yet, and a repeat performance in the summer might be the only outcome.

A prospect that few will embrace with enthusiasm, apart from the more conducive weather.