The only thing certain about 2017 is the depth of its uncertainty. Even the things we know will happen – the accession of President Donald Trump, the beginning of negotiations for Brexit, the elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany – will have ramifications that as yet we can barely guess at. What we can say for certain, though, is that Ireland, with its open society and open economy, will be quick to feel the effects of turmoil in the three places that matter most to us: the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union. We cannot batten down the hatches and hope that the storms do not come too close to our shores. Whatever force they have, we will feel it.
If Trump radically cuts US corporate taxes, it will affect our relationship to the US-based transnational corporations that are so central to the Irish economy. If Northern Ireland’s special position is not given its due weight in the Brexit talks, we could face the reimposition of a hard border (this time an external EU frontier) across our small island. If the radical right makes spectacular gains in western Europe, the euro currency and the EU itself may be threatened. And these are only the concrete possibilities we know about. History tells us that when things start to fall apart, events that no one had envisaged suddenly become real.
So what do you do when faced with things you can’t control?
You try to control the things you can and to influence the things on which we have some say, however slight. Reinhold Niebuhr’s famous prayer may be in order: we must have the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can and the wisdom to know the difference.
:fill(white):background_color(white)/static.themebuilder.aws.arc.pub/irishtimes/1647534191476.png)
We do not have the power to prevent the instability of the international context but that does not mean that we are powerless to affect our own destinies.
The State can, for a start, be clear and strong in its response to whatever plan British prime minister Theresa May’s government eventually comes up with for Brexit. If that plan is as vague and contradictory as assurances of “no return to a hard border” have been so far, the Government must not be afraid to demand a concrete practical strategy to achieve that outcome. If the UK government does not have that strategy, Ireland has to put one on the table and use its position on the EU side of the negotiating table to make it a key demand.
Second, we have to recognise that domestic policy cannot be allowed to drift in these turbulent seas. It is very likely that international events will blow us off course but that does not mean that we do not need to plot a course in the first place. The Government may be weak but it cannot afford to be indecisive. Public policy cannot be a matter of responding piecemeal and in a short-term way to conflicting demands for higher pay from different groups of public servants, shoring up and repairing public services and maintaining fiscal stability.
These demands are all legitimate but they are also inextricably linked and they require a coherent approach. A consensus has to be reached about what resources the State has and how it can use them for the greatest benefit of all citizens, including those who do not have a strong political or organisational voice. Those who shout loudest must not gain most.
Third, Ireland is not just an observer of the crisis of open democracy that is unfolding around us. We are very deeply involved in the processes of economic globalisation whose unequal outcomes have created such rage against established institutions and governments.
If we are to be part of the fightback for democratic values, we have to be in the forefront of showing that democracy can deliver for everyone. A relentless focus on increasing equality and opportunity and combating poverty and insecurity must be at the heart of all our policies.
Fourth, 2017 has to be the year in which we recognise that the core strategies that have served us well since the late 1950s – especially that of using low corporate tax as our unique calling card for investors – are not adequate in a rapidly changing world. The Government has moved tentatively towards a recognition that we need to rebrand ourselves in its very welcome Creative Ireland programme which sets out a five-year plan for the arts and culture sector.
It needs to go further and place the creativity, energy, compassion and – odd as it may seem in these anxious times – the optimism of our people at the heart of Ireland’s self-image. If corporate tax is no longer the attraction it has been, we have other things to say for ourselves. They give us cause, not to be blithely unaware of the huge challenges we face, but to fight the sour pessimism that is around us with sober and determined hope.