Political leaders around the world, as we observed here recently of Colombia's failed peace referendum and the Brexit vote, have been learning a bitter truth about such exercises in direct democracy. They have a tendency to bite back unexpectedly at the leaders who call them. It is a painful prospect Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is also contemplating.
Renzi has staked his future on the December 4th referendum vote to reform Italian politics, which he has described as a desperately needed, once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Evidence, however, that voters angry about the economy and political patronage want to take his resignation pledge at his word, and are prepared to vote the measures down to get rid of him, have prompted him to hint at what looks like a sensible tactical retreat on his promise to go. Whether he will save the proposal is another matter. And he is not being helped by opposition to the moves from significant numbers of his own Partito Democratico.
At issue is a constitutional rewrite to make the country more governable by substantially weakening parliament’s upper house, the Senate, and by legislating to make it easier for a party that wins an election to take the majority of seats in the lower house. A “blocked list” system proposed in his “Italicum” legislation would see two-thirds of deputies “nominated” by party leaders rather than elected by voters.
The net effect, both supporters and detractors say, would be to strengthen and stabilise the executive in a country which has had a bewildering 63 governments in the last 70 years. “If the referendum doesn’t pass, over the next 30 years whoever is prime minister will … be a slave to vetoes, blackmail and bureaucracy,” Renzi warns. And so it has been.
Italy’s EU allies are watching the referendum campaign nervously and would dearly love to see him succeed. Renzi’s premiership – pursuing a reform agenda designed to improve investor confidence and modernise the economy – has gone a long way to restoring Italy’s credibility on the global stage.