The Irish Times view: Mark Rutte rolls on

There is little doubt that not a few European Union leaders would be quietly pleased if tomorrow's election in the Netherlands displaced the leader of the union's awkward squad of fiscally conservative states, prime minister Mark Rutte. But that is not likely to be. Continuity is the Dutch order of the day, or as the French would probably say wistfully, "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose".

Rutte will almost certainly be back in office, despite a year of turbulent politics and Covid-19 management rows, his centre-right liberal VVD easily holding its own in polls as the largest party and the essential coalition kingmaker. He is on course to win a historic fourth term as prime minister and, when Angela Merkel departs German politics later this year, will become the EU's second longest-serving leader after Hungary's Viktor Orban. A politician who has the knack of shrugging off controversy, Rutte's popularity has held steady despite criticism of his government on Covid-19 lockdowns and a child benefits scandal that forced his cabinet to resign in January.

Pulling a coalition together may be more difficult this time – and it may take a couple of months – as both current coalition partners, the Christian Democrats (CDA) and liberal-progressive D66, are down in the polls. Rutte will need a third partner, but no one else is capable of pulling together a majority.

Post-Brexit, Rutte has elevated the Netherlands to one of the EU's major political players. His tough line against further EU integration and fiscal federalism – though he eventually acquiesced to a bigger budget and a substantial EU recovery fund – and his ambivalence towards making the case for the EU at home, have helped feed a new euroscepticism in the Netherlands. Inside the union Rutte has built informal alliances, like the mercantilist "Hanseatic League", with allies in hawkish countries such as Finland, Sweden and Denmark and also Ireland.