Editorials

The Irish Times view on the UK elections: grim news for the Tories

Even the hard right appears to accept that the sheer scale of the losses means that another leadership contest would only discredit the party further

Labour leader Keir Starmer speaks on Saturday following the victory of Labour candidate for West Midlands Mayor Richard Parker. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

Sun May 5 2024 - 20:05

No amount of pre-election expectation management would have been able to mask what were disastrous elections for the Tories and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak. Thursday’s local, mayoral and police commissioner elections, and one lone parliamentary byelection, across a swathe of English and Welsh counties, confirmed their worst fears about the sustained Labour surge and its prospects for a majority in a general election that is at most months away.

The Conservatives lost more than 470 of the 2,600 local council seats up for grabs and as the counts continued over the weekend were also defeated in key mayoral elections.

A 26 per cent swing to Labour in Blackpool South, Labour’s third best byelection result since the second World War, rivalled only by Dudley in 1994 and Wellingborough in February, was no flash in the pan. Five byelections in the current parliament have produced swings of more than 20 per cent. And the Tories were also squeezed on the right by the Reform Party, once the Brexit Party, which was only 17 votes short of taking second place.

On this showing a delighted Reform, whose vote further increases the pressure within the Tories to move to the right, looks likely to inflict serious general election damage on Tory prospects, splitting the latter’s vote and gifting many seats to Labour, without actually taking many of its own.

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Labour, too, was affected by the unusual proliferation of non-mainstream vote-splitting. Greens and Independents made significant inroads, with some voters opposed to Labour’s prevarication over Gaza. With both main parties under pressure from their flanks, the elections were more than just a snapshot of the popular mood, but will inevitably serve as an engine of further political polarisation.

It looks like a new challenge to Sunak’s leadership will not materialise yet. Even the hard right appears to accept that the sheer scale of the losses means that another leadership contest would only discredit the party further

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