Inquiry into Varadkar leak is set to complicate handover of Taoiseach's office

After two years of Covid-19 relegating everything to second place, and with only about 32 sitting days in the Dáil schedule before the summer recess, the political agenda is packed – but there’s an elephant in the room.

The big ticket items that Ministers hope to push through in the coming weeks include: a much-hyped affordable housing scheme for first-time buyers, enhanced grants for homeowners affected by defective blocks, legislation to give adopted people access to their birth information, the future funding and status of the defence forces, an overhaul of the judicial appointments process, new working arrangements for employees and a new electoral commission.

The vista is similarly hectic after the summer break, and all of that is without mentioning the acute pressures posed by the war in Ukraine.

Yet simmering away under this busy surface is an issue that has an increasing number of politicians holding their breath, and that is the ongoing Garda investigation into Leo Varadkar’s leak of a GP pay deal document.

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The big political set-piece of the year, and indeed one of the most fascinating things about this entire term of government, is due to happen on December 15th with the changeover of taoiseach from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin to Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar.

Many senior figures in Fine Gael have been left scratching their heads, wondering why the Garda investigation is still ongoing.

The probe was launched after Varadkar confirmed he had leaked a copy of the proposed new GP contract to a friend – Dr Maitiú Ó Tuathail – in April 2019.

The document contained details of the deal the then government had provisionally agreed with the Irish Medical Organisation.

Frustration at delay

At the time Ó Tuathail was the president of the National Association of General Practitioners, a rival organisation also representing GPs that is now defunct.

In political circles there was an expectation that the investigation would be completed by late last year.

Although the situation was far from ideal, the party faithful were not overly worried as in their minds this left enough clear blue water between that and their return to the office of taoiseach.

But that was last year and this is now, just eight months before the big switch.

The continued delay has been a source of frustration for both Varadkar and now the wider coalition, as the prospects of having the matter resolved, one way or other, before December 15th get that bit slimmer with every passing week.

There is rising apprehension within Fianna Fáil and the Greens about the matter

There was speculation that the file had been quietly sent to the Director of Public Prosecutions without any fanfare but in response to questions from The Irish Times on Thursday, gardaí say the investigation is still ongoing.

Asked if the investigation was concluded, and if not when it may be expected to conclude, a spokeswoman responded promptly and said: “This remains an ongoing criminal investigation. An Garda Síochána does not comment on ongoing criminal investigations.”

The National Bureau of Criminal Investigation (NBCI) has been leading the investigation and there have been rumblings that it is close to completing its work.

Cultural shift

Details about the progress of the NCBI’s work have been kept under lock and key but this is not unusual – there has been a cultural shift within the force in recent years which has seen a clampdown on the lines of communication between senior members and journalists across the board.

But even if a file is sent to the DPP in the immediate or near future, which would of course be a significant development, security sources do not expect the DPP to expedite their consideration of the matter.

No one knows how long it will take the DPP to consider the file but few expect it to be a quick affair. In fact, speaking privately, many politicians expect them to take their time and parse every last detail.

The DPP is, naturally, independent of the Government and will have to consider whether Varadkar has a case to answer and, if so, whether there is a public interest in prosecuting. Those close to the Tánaiste say he strongly believes he will be vindicated in his assertion that he has committed no criminal offence and they say he is getting on with the job on that basis. Yet there is a growing likelihood that the issue could remain unresolved in the lead-up to the changeover or potentially even at the time of the switch, which would put a dark cloud over the event for Fine Gael.

There is rising apprehension within Fianna Fáil and the Greens about the matter and around how to answer questions on the topic. Those questions are sure to feature more prominently over the summer. Fianna Fáil and Green TDs will be asked as a matter of course if they are comfortable voting for Varadkar as taoiseach if he is still under investigation, and you can be sure not all of them will say yes. A number of TDs in those parties have told The Irish Times that they believe it needs to be sorted before December 15th. The problem is that it is completely out of their hands. For now.