The economy is recovering much faster than many expected. When the European Commission recently forecast that Ireland would be the strongest growing European economy in 2014 and for the next two years, many international observers were surprised.
Ireland is on the way back, but not all parts of the country are benefiting. For many around the country impressive economic statistics have not translated into real life improvements.
We need an urgent debate on how best to ensure all parts of the country feel the benefits.
The recovery has firmly taken hold in Dublin. Traffic counts have already exceeded their pre-crisis levels; a housing shortage has emerged; retail and hospitality is doing much better; and even construction is bouncing back.
All of this is driven by strong job-creation. Dublin remains a location of choice for high-end technology and other services jobs.
Over half of all the new jobs announced since the start of last year were in the capital.
Businesses are also reporting better trading conditions in Cork and Galway, but many other parts of the country remain in the doldrums.
Retailers and small businesses in the midlands, the northwest or the southeast, for example, are not experiencing a pick-up in line with Ibec’s projected 6 per cent national economic growth rate for this year.
Before the crash the construction boom visited every nook and cranny of the country. But when the crisis hit rural areas felt it hardest. Unemployment jumped about 30 per cent more than in urban areas.
This was followed by emigration, business closures and in many cases the withdrawal of public services. The economic and social fallout was enormous and is ongoing.
Lag is longer
We know from previous recessions that there is always a lag between a recovery in Dublin and the rest of the country. This time it seems that the lag is much longer.
More worryingly, we can’t be sure that prosperity will actually flow from the main cities to elsewhere.
The future economic fate of Ireland’s regional and rural areas can’t be left to chance. It must be planned for and invested in.
So what can be done? First, we need ambition. Government, business and society in general can rebuild a prosperous regional and rural economy. We should aim high.
Ireland will have by far the strongest-growing population of any EU country over the coming decades. A return to net immigration and continued high birth rates can help revitalise every county in Ireland. Urban growth does not need to come at the expense of rural areas.
Regional development
Second, government must have a detailed plan to support balanced regional development.
Previous attempts at a national spatial strategy failed because the political system refused to make the difficult decisions on the prioritisation of limited resources. Local politics trumped proper regional planning when it came to the tough decisions. With the next general election just over a year away, we cannot afford to let this happen again.
We urgently need a new strategy that sets out a blueprint for a better balance of social, economic and infrastructure development across the entire country. It must be supported by more effective and integrated planning.
A relatively small number of strategically located growth centres must be identified, which can in turn attract economic activity to their neighbouring towns and rural catchment areas.
For the plan to succeed, the administrative and political system must prioritise investment in these areas. This must not be an “anti-Dublin” plan, but one that fosters the full potential of each region, including the capital city.
Third, we need to connect a spatial policy to an enterprise policy that can deliver jobs and investment. Sectors such as food, natural resources, tourism, and manufacturing, which have a more natural non-urban focus, need to be prioritised. Chunks of Ireland’s manufacturing activity, for example, were crowded out by the housing boom; but with the right cost base and support the sector has the potential to deliver thousands of new jobs.
Finally, government and business need to invest ambitiously. We must take advantage of the lowest interest rates in history to provide the physical and social infrastructure needed for our rapidly-growing population.
Some important projects were shelved when the crisis hit, but are ready to go now. We should press ahead without delay.
Our economic recovery is the talk of Europe. We now need decisive action to ensure that the recovery becomes the talk and reality of every city, town and village in Ireland. Fergal O’Brien is head of national and regional policy for business lobby group Ibec