Newton Emerson: Dublin drawn into Brexit ‘do or die’ rhetoric

It is just three weeks since calm voices pointed to a Plan B Brexit.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said in the event of no deal, Ireland was considering agrifood checks at ports around the whole island to avoid a hard border.

While this was “vastly inferior” to the UK-EU withdrawal agreement it was a realistic contingency, the Taoiseach said in a radio interview.

The idea was welcomed by DUP chief whip Jeffrey Donaldson, although, as Varadkar had pointed out, "It would mean Britain accepting that Northern Ireland is being treated differently."

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An all-Ireland agrifood zone is the key recommendation of the UK's Alternative Arrangements Commission, a group formed by senior Leave and Remain Tories and supported by the DUP.

The commission proposed such a zone in a preliminary report at the start of July, with a final report published five days after the Taoiseach’s interview. Both reports were endorsed by both candidates for the Conservative leadership.

Boris Johnson, the subsequent victor, can be presumed to view the idea as a preferred Plan A.

Import checks

Everyone was clearly watching their language, with the phrase ‘sea border’ particularly notable by its absence. EU-compliant import checks on all the food travelling between Britain and Northern Ireland, even in the westbound-only direction, would be a substantial exercise and one the DUP has until now ruled out in the strongest possible terms.

An all-Ireland agrifood zone could as easily be called a permanent backstop as an alternative to the backstop, given how much north-south regulatory alignment it would require. Nobody said that either.

Yet by the end of last week, London, Dublin and the DUP were in full-scale verbal combat. Johnson’s outright rejection of the backstop provoked Varadkar into musing about a united Ireland, which enraged the DUP.

Ian Paisley jnr appealed for an end to the resulting "megaphone diplomacy", indicating how far matters had gone over the top.

The formation of what is in practice a new British government has reset negotiations to a statement of opening positions, so some brandishing of megaphones was inevitable. However, needlessly ramping up tensions and closing off options remains inexcusable.

Fianna Fáil earned rebukes across the political spectrum, from Fine Gael to Sinn Féin, for gently suggesting there is nothing to be gained by "one-upmanship".

What needs to be protected as this stage is climb-downmanship: face-saving ways for any workable outcome between no deal and the withdrawal agreement to be presented as a success.

The Irish Government’s biggest mistake in this regard is repeatedly insisting the withdrawal agreement cannot be reopened. That has not been the official position of the EU – or of the Government.

Brussels has said it will reopen the agreement if there is a fundamental change in the UK’s red lines, and Dublin has added this includes considering unique arrangements for Northern Ireland.

Johnson has already torn up his predecessor Theresa May's immigration policy, the red line that requires the UK to leave the single market. An all-island agrifood zone is unquestionably a unique arrangement for Northern Ireland. There is enough here for everyone to find a common position without appearing to surrender.

The UK has entered a Brexit extension period, granted on condition the withdrawal agreement is not reopened. A further extension will almost certainly be required to avoid no deal, let alone to negotiate and implement any rejigged deal. France has warned it will veto another extension and the European Parliament will not pass any deal without the Border backstop or arrangements to that effect.

Influence

Ireland’s strength lies in the influence it has over these decisions, as opposed to just defiantly holding the line. If Dublin is satisfied with a rejigged deal, the European Parliament will be satisfied, while Paris and Brussels will have to at least pretend to be satisfied.

But the more Ireland rejects any changes now, the harder it will be for anyone to claim they are satisfied.

The Irish Government cannot reasonably be criticised for expressing its absolute preference for the current withdrawal agreement – another point even Paisley has conceded. There is still a high-risk case for holding out for a UK general election or other transformative development. However, the Government can be criticised for matching Johnson's "do or die" Brexit rhetoric when so much scope remains for compromise.

The DUP has revealed how desperate it is to back down by signalling acceptance of an agrifood sea border. Dublin should be massaging that weak spot for all it is worth. Instead, the Taoiseach made comments last Friday that he admitted would be “provocative”. Speaking at the MacGill summer school, he said moderate unionists would look at rising British nationalism and consider a united Ireland – a hope for which there is only the flimsiest of anecdotal evidence.

What everyone in Northern Ireland actually sees is a rise in British nationalism provoking a rise in Irish nationalism. That leads nowhere but disaster, as all good Europeans ought to know.