Rabbitte's coalition ultimatum could lead to dilemma

The Labour Party has moved into a strong position to get into power after the next election, according to the latest Irish Times poll, but to achieve its goal the party may have to make some truly unpalatable choices about coalition partners.

A lot will hinge on whether the PDs remain the untouchables in the event of a hung Dáil.

Pat Rabbitte has firmly excluded the possibility of any coalition deal with Fianna Fáil and received the overwhelming endorsement of his party for that stand.

He courageously staked his political future on a coalition deal with Fine Gael, and so far the strategy seems to be working. In terms of party allegiance, the poll shows that the combined support of Fine Gael and Labour, at 40 per cent, is exactly equal to the support of the two Government parties.

The problem is that if that result were replicated on election day, neither side would be able to form a government.

Fianna Fáil has staged a good recovery since the last TNS mrbi poll in October, but the 37 per cent rating is well short of what will be required to deliver another term of office for the Coalition.

Bertie Ahern has hedged his bets by making no secret of the fact that he would be willing to do a deal with Labour if the numbers with the PDs don't add up. The PDs have also been planning for that contingency by making it clear they would be open to joining the Fine Gael-Labour alternative in the event of a stalemate.

That is where the real dilemma would arise for Labour. On the poll figures, the party will face the choice of dumping its leader and accepting the Fianna Fáil embrace, or burying the hatchet with the PDs and including them in a rainbow government with Fine Gael and the Greens.

Mr Rabbitte has said repeatedly that he does not want the PDs as a coalition partner but, if it turns out to be the only way Labour can achieve power under his leadership, he will have no option but to give it a try.

It would be a bitter pill for many in the Labour Party to swallow; the question is whether it would be more palatable than coalition with Fianna Fáil.

It would suit Labour much better to go into government with Fine Gael and the Greens, possibly with the support of a few Independents, but unless the alternative government can attract another 5 per cent or so of the electorate it looks as if the PDs will be the deciding factor in the equation for the rainbow.

Of course, if Fianna Fáil can haul itself up another 5 per cent or so then it will be in pole position to get back into office.

The really positive aspect of the poll for Labour is the rise to 16 per cent, a figure that gives the party a chance of making real gains.

A problem with the Fine Gael-Labour alternative until now was that Labour was not making the same headway as its partner.

If the poll figure is maintained, the prospect of an alternative will become more feasible as long as the gains are not at the expense of Fine Gael. It is interesting to note that the Labour rise comes after Mr Rabbitte's decision to express concern about the effect immigration was having on the displacement of Irish workers. Some people in the party were uneasy about the initiative, but he seems to have struck a chord with the electorate.

Labour has been struggling with the perception that it has drifted away from its core working base. Mr Rabbitte's decision to focus on immigration as it affects the pay and conditions of Irish workers has clearly gone down well.

At a press conference to put flesh on the bones of his policy last Thursday, the Labour leader talked about cleaners and forklift-drivers who had come to his clinic to complain about losing their jobs because their employers could hire immigrant workers more cheaply.

Mr Rabbitte was careful to say that he was equally concerned with the exploitation of immigrants by unscrupulous employers.

It is a sensitive issue which he will handle carefully, but the Labour leader is clearly in tune with a significant segment of his potential constituency.

When it comes to identifying which government option is more in touch with the concerns of the electorate, the poll produced some interesting findings. On the question of who will handle the economy best, the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition is ahead of the alternative and when it comes to who will keep taxes lower, it is significantly ahead. However, when asked who will control prices best, the Fine Gael-led alternative was ahead and it was even farther ahead on the issue of who will deal best with the health service.

If the battleground is the economy and taxes, the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition will win. If it is the quality of public service and the treatment of the consumer then the alternative can do it.

When it comes to the election, the task of Fine Gael and Labour will be to neutralise the Government's advantage on the economy and taxation by focusing the debate on health, waste and stealth taxes.

Whichever side best defines the debate will win power.