Stephen Collins: Labour can defy the prophets of doom

Predictions about the imminent demise of the Labour Party have been one of the recurring features of Irish politics since the foundation of the State, and the party's critics are at it again on the eve of the 2016 general election.

While there is no disguising the scale of the challenge now facing Labour, it is capable of defying the prophets of doom if it can mount a coherent and unified campaign.

The fact of the matter is that Labour does have a strong message to sell if it can get through the negative barrage put up by its political opponents and its many detractors.

The party has always managed to attract a disproportionate level of criticism for things that go wrong when it is in office, but the paradox is that the same process is still taking place even as things have gone right.

There is no arguing with the basic fact that the party has participated in a Government that has helped to pull the country back from the brink of an economic and social catastrophe and managed to do so in a way that has generally protected the most vulnerable in society.

By contrast with previous elections, when Labour in government had to campaign in the teeth of a recession, this time around the party is going to the country with an economic recovery picking up pace by the day.

The challenge facing the party is to get some of the credit for that achievement while convincing enough voters that Labour made a positive contribution to the recovery that would not have happened if Fine Gael had been in power on its own.

Fundamental achievements

Apart from pointing to the proudest achievement of both parties in government – 130,000 jobs created since 2012 – Labour TDs claim credit for a range of decisions which they argue, with some justification, would not have happened if the party had not been in power.

They include the two increases in the minimum wage, the Low Pay Commission, the decision to legislate on the X case, the same-sex marriage referendum, the restoration of public service pay and welfare reductions.

One of the fundamental achievements of the party was to shift the balance away from spending cuts to tax increases during the recession years when Fine Gael and the troika, along with many economists, favoured a far more aggressive cuts policy.

Labour’s problem is that credit for the Government’s achievements appears to be going exclusively to Fine Gael while it remains stuck on low opinion poll ratings ranging from 7 per cent to 9 per cent.

If the party cannot do better than 7 per cent on election day, it will be impossible to avoid a disaster but if it can hit 9 per cent or more it should be able to salvage a respectable result that will see it in government for a second term.

The row in the Labour parliamentary party over the leaking of internal polls giving the party a range of between 10 and 16 seats has distracted from other elements of its private polling that highlight its ability to capitalise on the economic recovery and on the requirement for political stability after the election.

What those and other published polls show is that an overwhelming majority of people now believe the economic recovery is under way even if not enough of them think that they have benefited personally.

A majority of people also believe political stability is an important feature of the recovery and see the Coalition as a vehicle for ensuring that stability.

So far the numbers saying they will vote Fine Gael or Labour does not reflect the potential support that exists for a stable government and the challenge facing both parties is to drive the message home during the election campaign.

The bickering between Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and the forces on the left about who they will or will not go into coalition with has reinforced the image of the Coalition as the only vehicle for continuing stability.

The Labour leadership has made the tactical decision to campaign unambiguously for a return of the Coalition. That should enable the party not only to gain some extra support for itself in terms of first preferences but also to ensure it benefits from strong Fine Gael transfers. The difference between 10 and 16 seats may very well come down to the strength of the transfers from Fine Gael.

Every election throws up its own unique set of circumstances and this time it could well be the unknown impact of a very fractured field. A range of small parties and Independents are likely to attract a significant number of first preference votes between them, but those votes will then be divided up across a wide range of candidates.

Campaign momentum

This could lead to Fine Gael getting a massive seat bonus and being the biggest party, but it could also lead to Labour getting seats on relatively low first preference totals if the party’s candidates can keep their heads above water as others are eliminated.

One important factor is the kind of momentum that will be generated in the course of the campaign. If the coalition parties can gain 5 per cent or so between them over their current poll standing, they should be close to the 75 or so seats that would put them in an unassailable position to form the next government.

Exit polls from previous elections have shown that a lot of people only make up their minds about who to vote for in the final days of a campaign. If Labour can capitalise on a swing to the Government, it could yet surprise a lot of people.