Good morning,
This afternoon Liz Truss will take to her feet in the House of Commons for only her third Prime Minister’s Questions. She does so under excruciating pressure after a dizzying series of U-turns and a “lengthy discussion” (a row) with her cabinet on Tuesday about NHS and defence spending.
There is temporary relief from market pressure, but she is now struggling to maintain anything like cohesion within her government. There is open talk of resignations from cabinet as budget cuts rear into view.
Against this backdrop, discussions on the future operation of the Northern Ireland protocol are ticking over in the background. In sharp contrast to the disarray emanating from London on almost all other matters, they appear relatively businesslike.
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Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney – who travelled to Belfast last night – was (relatively) positive about engagements between Dublin and London. “The last thing that most people in Northern Ireland want right now is another election cycle,” he said on Tuesday. “For what it’s worth, there’s actually been more discussion between me and my office and my counterparts… over the last week than there has been for a very long time.”
It seems that the European and British officials have begun talking in detail for the first time since February – and are having a proper conversation. But there’s an awful lot to get right in a short time, and a lot in flux.
The impact of the current chaos will doubtlessly be playing out in the background. Is it worthwhile to build a relationship with Truss, foreign secretary James Cleverly, Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris or his deputy Steve Baker? How long will they be there?
Notwithstanding progress that may be made on technical or legal questions regarding the protocol, will the outcome be acceptable to the DUP? Earlier this year, the main problem was whether the British side could be trusted to approach negotiations in good faith; now it’s whether negotiators can trust that their counterparts will be in situ next week.
There is little optimism among senior Coalition figures that the talks will achieve a positive outcome by October 28th – after which, strictly speaking, a Stormont election must be called. With Number 10 focused on trying to steady the ship elsewhere, one senior source says there is a need for a “reality check” on any hopes that anything can be concluded with such tumult in Downing Street.
Many in Government here believe a vote could be called, but point out there is no need for an election to follow for another three months. That stands in sharp contrast to Mr Heaton-Harris’s assertion on Tuesday that he will call an election if the Stormont Executive is not restored by a minute past midnight on October 28th. “I cannot be clearer – that is what will happen,” he told a Commons committee, promising a short campaign with a vote on December 8th or 15th.
With the current fashion for U-turns in London, this may well change. Encouraging signals from Brussels, or the DUP, could encourage Mr Heaton-Harris to fudge the call for an election. But for the time-being, hopes that negotiations on the protocol could succeed in spite of political chaos in the UK are slim.
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Playbook
Minister of State Seán Fleming will make a speech outlining his vision for the future of the insurance sector – reform of which the Government has made a priority – at PwC at 8.45am.
Michael McGrath will address the Engineers Ireland national conference at 9.30am.
As mentioned above, Simon Coveney is in Belfast and will give a talk organised by the Hume Foundation at 10am. Chris Heaton-Harris is also likely to be in Belfast.
Eamon Ryan will be out at the offices of charity Alone, urging people to avail of supports ahead of a difficult winter, at 10am.
The Central Bank is set to loosen its rules on mortgage borrowing: expect this to be a topic across the political day as well.
Over at the committees, the health committee will undertake pre-legislative scrutiny on safe access zones with officials from the Department of Health at 9.30am. Driver shortages and costs affecting the coach sector (and presumably schoolbuses) will be the focus of the transport committee, before it turns its mind to the impact of speed limit reductions on greenhouse gas emissions. That’s at 1.30pm.
John McGuinness’s finance committee will at the same time be hearing from Ulster Bank and KBC on their withdrawal from the Irish market. The committee on budgetary oversight has a post-budget engagement with the ESRI and others at 5.30pm, before the education committee meets at 6.30pm to discuss the future funding of higher education, student accommodation and other matters with Simon Harris. More details here.
In the Dáil, the Social Democrats have a motion on the redress scheme for Mother and Baby Home survivors. They will be trying to make life uncomfortable for Roderic O’Gorman, who has been targeted for dropping plans to independently review the controversial report of the commission into the homes. That’s at 10am, before Leaders’ Questions and Taoiseach’s Questions across lunchtime. Statements before the European Council meeting later this week and Government Business on upcoming legislation take up most of the afternoon. Full details are here.
In the Seanad, the committee stage of the Consumer Rights Bill is being heard at 1pm, before statements on the 9 per cent VAT rate for tourism and hospitality at 3.30pm. A Private Members’ Motion on poverty and social exclusion rounds out the day at 5pm. Full schedule is here.
