Is Paschal Donohoe in trouble over election expenses? Explaining is losing in politics

President George W Bush’s political adviser Karl Rove was credited with coining the political maxim: “When you are explaining, you are losing.”

When a politician makes a clarifying statement and then has to make another statement to clarify the clarifying statement, it is usually not good. Sometimes, it can mean the politician is on a slippery slope increasingly struggling to arrest their downward slide.

On Wednesday, Paschal Donohoe made a statement to the Dáil revolving around his 2016 election expenses, particularly his failure to include a payment-in-kind donation he received for services. Those services were the use of a van, and also six workers who put up posters for him in his Dublin Central constituency.

In his Dáil statement, Mr Donohoe said he only learned since December – over six years later – that the workers had got paid for their services over four days – a total of €1,100. The value of the use of the van was €140.

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On Thursday morning, Mr Donohoe was again in the Dáil but in a more workaday situation – answering questions in his role as Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. Inevitably, the continuing controversy over the 2016 election expenses was going to arise. He indicated that he would make a further statement on the matter but did not specify when.

Why the need? There has been a lot of speculation around the nature of what he will say. Is there further information that he omitted to mention in his statement yesterday? If so, that will spell trouble. Or is he going to give more detail on what he said on Wednesday?

If it is the second, it could land him in more difficulty, but it might also close off some of the speculation of the past 24 hours.

The format for the statements on Wednesday was unsatisfactory. The Opposition had called for a question-and-answer session but that was refused by the Government. Instead, there were statements from Mr Donohoe and each Opposition Party and Group. At the very end of the session, Ceann Comhaire Seán Ó Fearghaíl asked Mr Donohoe to respond to some of the questions raised.

The Minister did not directly address any of the questions, saying that these issues would be dealt with by the Standards in Public Office Commission. That led to angry and boisterous scenes in the Dáil, with Opposition spokespeople arguing Mr Donohoe had not answered the questions. And, indeed, he had not. That is why the matter remains simmering 24 hours later.

If there is no new information, there are a number of questions that remain outstanding. Mr Donohoe needs to show how the value of the work was calculated, how many hours were worked, and how many posters were erected. This is to address the charge by Róisín Shortall of the Social Democrats that it looks very much like ‘mates rates’.

Mr Donohoe has also not told the Dáil the circumstances in which he found out about the use of the van in 2017, a year after the election. He has not given detail on this and needs to do so.

Mr Donohoe said the donation was made to the local party organisation rather than to himself. That is important because an individual can make a higher donation to a party (€2,500 rather than €1,000). However, there is a requirement for the local branch to report that donation as part of the returns required by law. The Opposition have asked if that has been done by Fine Gael.

Even then, this issue might be a bigger problem for him and his standing than he, or the Government, had imagined, especially if the new statement he makes does not substantially address all the outstanding issues.