NI protocol: Can British PM Rishi Sunak cut a deal acceptable to the DUP and EU?

As journalists waited outside the Culloden on Friday for either the DUP or British prime minister Rishi Sunak to emerge, there was little else to do except chat.

One such conversation pondered the choice of venue — a five-star luxury hotel and spa in a former bishop’s palace overlooking Belfast Lough — and what might be inferred from this about Sunak. In his 42 years, Sunak has made three trips to Northern Ireland, all in the last six months, and on each occasion has set up camp in the Culloden.

For those standing about on the lawn, there was plenty of time to joke about whether the prime minister realised not all of Northern Ireland was like this.

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Yet all joking aside, since his departure from Belfast Sunak’s judgment is suddenly very much in question. The momentum which appeared to be building towards a deal has stalled thanks to the spanner inserted by the DUP and the pressure being applied by hardline pro-Brexit Tory MPs.

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This should have come as no surprise, according to the DUP’s Sammy Wilson. “If he [Sunak] is wanting to get the Assembly up and running again then he knows … that central to our position is that EU law cannot apply in Northern Ireland.”

In fairness, Sunak has the unenviable task of trying to square the circle of a deal that is acceptable to the EU and the DUP — if this is even possible given the extent of the DUP’s demands.

Meanwhile, nationalists suspect the “real” red line for the DUP is its reluctance to work under a Sinn Féin first minister, a charge the DUP has rejected.

But this is not the first time one has had to question the current government’s judgment when it comes to Northern Ireland. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris has been forced to back down twice. First, over Daithí’s Law, organ donation legislation finally brought in through an amendment at Westminster on Wednesday even though he had previously said it should go through the Assembly. And second, in October over the election he threatened to call at “one minute past midnight” if Stormont was not restored.

Heaton-Harris, so much of the commentary went, simply did not realise deadlines were different here; just as Sunak, clearly, did not realise the DUP was also different.

As a party, it is motivated by principle rather than pragmatism — though its stand is made easier by the fact it is under no pressure from its voters to either back a deal or re-enter the Assembly and, arguably, could perform better in the forthcoming local elections by not doing so.

This is not a new conclusion. The lesson of unionism’s history is that it gives ground only slowly, and those who do tend to be treated with suspicion or condemned as traitors; if you compromise, you are compromised.

Emboldened DUP

Sunak’s quick dash to Belfast was clearly never going to secure him the DUP’s backing; instead, it has left him with greater problems within his own party and an emboldened DUP.

It has also created a further query — reinforced by other faux pas such as the decision to block Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald from a meeting between the Northern parties and UK ministers and wrangles over press access — over the extent to which his government understands Northern Ireland and whether it really wishes to do so.

Yet the DUP has also put Sunak in an unenviable, and perhaps impossible, position. He appeared to be on the cusp of a deal that would have been welcomed by many in the North. If he succumbs to the DUP and European Research Group [Eurosceptic Conservative MPs] he will look weak, but if he presses ahead regardless he could face a backbench revolt or a challenge to his own leadership.

On that first visit to the North, Sunak told local Conservatives in the Culloden, “we need to restore trust quite a bit in Northern Ireland”. Six months on, there is even more to do.