What is in the new post-Brexit trade plan aimed at breaking the Stormont deadlock?

We have heard the political spin from all sides, but what is actually in the paper published on Wednesday by the UK government? At issue are the Windsor Framework rules which govern trade between Britain and Northern Ireland and the procedures agreed to implement it, specifically the checks on goods, food products and animals entering Northern Ireland from Britain, put in place to avoid the need for a trade border on the island of Ireland.

1. The end of routine checks

Since the agreement on the original Northern Ireland protocol, a key issue for unionism, and for businesses in Northern Ireland, has been to reduce the checks on goods crossing into Northern Ireland from Britain. A step was taken in the Windsor Framework which established a green lane for goods intended for the Northern Ireland market and a red lane for those moving onwards to the Republic and the EU Single Market.

Now the UK government says that the routine checks on goods intended for the Northern Ireland market will be removed – currently a certain percentage are checked, although the Windsor Framework allows for no customs checks on goods coming from Britain for companies signed up to a trusted trader scheme. In future, as allowed under the framework, checks will only apply under a “risk-rated” system where criminality of some kind is suspected, or a danger to public health.

The concept of the green lane would be done away with, given Northern Ireland’s place in the UK single market. And the intention is to move more goods out of the “red lane” where checks are needed.

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Required visual checks on agri-food imports will be achieved largely by examining lorries with mixed loads – some intended for Northern Ireland and some for the Republic, which would be checked anyway.

As the Windsor Framework already offers some flexibility here, the changes may get the green light from the EU, though we will have to wait and see.

Minimising checks and paperwork has been the direction in talks undertaken since the original Northern Ireland protocol was published and the latest deal carries this a step further. The entire process has removed anomalies and allowed freer trade, though some controls, checks and trade friction will inevitably remain. For example, many of the goods entering Northern Ireland for further processing will continue to go through the " red lane” and face checks.

2. Aligning with EU rules

A key issue for unionism has been the requirement to align with EU rules – which will change as the years go on – in some areas, to allow Northern Ireland goods manufacturers to sell freely into the EU single market, as well as into the UK. The Windsor Framework gave the Northern Ireland Assembly the right to an emergency “brake”, under which it could examine proposed new EU legislation and, with 30 votes, put in on hold pending further talks.

The UK is now proposing to remove a line from its Withdrawal Bill to confirm that new EU laws will not automatically apply in Northern Ireland, because of the “brake” mechanism, as part of wider legislation designed to underline Northern Ireland’s place in the UK and the sovereignty of the UK parliament. In the longer term, there may be questions if Northern Ireland does opt out of EU rule changes about the freedom of its manufacturers to sell into all areas of the EU Single Market.

Much will also depend on the extent to which the UK decides to diverge from EU trade rules and regulations in the years ahead – remember that “tearing up the EU rule-book” was a key promise of the Brexiteers. And a number raised this point on Wednesday in the House of Commons. This was because the UK government paper says there will be a requirement to assess whether any new legislation would affect trade between Britain and Northern Ireland – but not any promise of what would happen as a result.

Northern Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris says the UK would still be free to diverge from EU trade rules when it is in its interest. However, this looks like a bit of a fudge, as if the UK does choose to diverge then questions would be raised about what happens in Northern Ireland and whether this would affect its trade with the EU.

3. Other measures

The new paper promises to underline Northern Ireland’s place in the UK and address some other specific sectoral issues, such as promising to strike a new veterinary products agreement. It promises to underpin the “unfettered access” to the British market of Northern Ireland products and establish a new Intertrade UK body to promote trade across the United Kingdom. A planned new customs post in Cairnryan in Scotland will not be built - it had been designed to check goods coming from the Republic via Northern ports but had raised hackles among Unionists. New measures will also allow Northern Ireland to benefit more fully from trade deals with third countries done by the UK.

While the practical impact may be limited, the DUP will be pleased that the UK is promising to remove from its EU Withdrawal Act “all statutory duties” relating to the all-island economy in Ireland, which was meant to be taken into account in future decisions. The Irish Government will not like this and nor, in particular, will Sinn Féin, though in reality it may not mean very much. And for now no-one wants a row, at least until Stormont is up and running again.

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