Analysis: Prospect of Government defeat on confidence vote recedes

The confirmation by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael exiles Marc MacSharry and Joe McHugh over the weekend that they will support the Government in Tuesday’s vote of confidence in the Dáil took the pressure off Government whips, removing the uncertainty about the outcome of the vote that has threatened the Coalition since it lost its majority on paper last week.

It is, they say, the first rule of politics: you have to be able to count. Last week, the Government’s total number of TDs under the whip was 79, one short of a majority. MacSharry and McHugh bring it back up over the magic 80.

On Monday morning, Tipperary Independent Michael Lowry added the insurance score, issuing a statement that confirmed his intention to vote with the Government on Tuesday. Lowry has also known the value of an early declaration.

In truth, the prospects of a Government defeat in the confidence vote – which would pitch the country into a summer general election – were never strong. While the Government’s majority may be gone on paper, in reality it has a working majority of several votes, and often more, as many Independent TDs tend to support the Government and some of their colleagues often do not vote against it.

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For the Government to be defeated, every single Independent would have to vote against the Government, as would the two Green TDs Patrick Costello and Neasa Hourigan (who lost the whip for a period of six months but are expected to return to the party fold in the autumn) and the ex-Fianna Fáil and ex-Fine Gael politicians MacSharry and McHugh. And remember – all of these would have to vote against the Government, not just decline to vote with it.

[ Government set to survive no confidence vote as Marc MacSharry describes SF move as ‘gimmick’ ]

Accidents happen all the time in politics, and governments often suffer embarrassing defeats on votes. But they rarely happen in high-profile, consequential votes, such as motions of confidence. So it is extremely unlikely – and always has been – that Micheál Martin will be tootling up to Áras an Uachtaráin on Tuesday night to seek a dissolution of the Dáil.

Sinn Féin, being able to count, knows this, and knew it last week. So it must believe that another purpose is served by Tuesday’s motion.

In fact, several purposes are served by it.

At the most basic level, the Dáil debate will afford Sinn Féin a high-profile platform from which to rehearse the criticisms and attacks on the Government – it is out of touch, people are suffering, health and housing are dysfunctional, it is time for a change – for which Mary Lou McDonald and her colleagues use the Dáil and the media so effectively.

More of the same tomorrow.

This is not just rehearsing the old lines (though there will be a plenty of that), it is marking the last week of the Dáil term by positioning Sinn Féin as the only alternative to the current Government: the leaders of the Opposition, the government-in-waiting.

[ Government expected to survive vote on Sinn Féin motion of no confidence ]

The motion also requires everyone to nail their colours to the mast. Any Independents who support the Government will find themselves firmly bracketed with the Coalition by constituency rivals, and reminded of their support whenever an election does come. Given that Sinn Féin will be seeking to win seats from everyone – not just the Coalition parties – at the next election, this is a useful exercise for the party.

Two years after the coalition was formed, Sinn Féin will portray it as a failure, an arrangement designed by a frightened establishment to prevent the real change the party says it offers. The populist insiders vs outsiders message has worked for the party for the past two years. It is unlikely to change it now.

For the Government, motions of confidence tend to offer an opportunity to rally the troops and kick back at the Opposition. All those Fianna Fáil TDs, for example, who met for a backbench grumble last week, will be marching through the Government lobbies on Tuesday evening. Ministers spend much of their time being attacked by Sinn Féin and other opposition parties in the Dáil – they relish the opportunity to answer back.

The results of the vote will also underline the enduring importance of Independents on the Irish political landscape. The current crop of Independents and micro-parties cannot really be thought about as a single group; they have three separate technical groups and contain people from the right to the left of the spectrum and all places in between. But they seem likely to be at the centre of politics for the remainder of this Dáil.