Form and precedent point firmly to Kilkenny

GAELIC GAMES:THE ALL-Ireland hurling semi-final takes place tomorrow, but the pre-season expectations of a two-horse championship remain essentially undisturbed. The gap between Kilkenny and Tipperary and the field has widened and that is the context for the fourth championship meeting of Kilkenny and Waterford in eight years.

The lack of depth to the competition makes judgements hard to form. Circumstances haven’t helped either. If Waterford hadn’t taken such a gamble with their defensive configuration might they have prevented the Munster final turning into a rout? Would Dublin have put in a less doomed performance in the Leinster final had they not been struck by injuries?

That would hardly have changed the outcome but it might have tested Kilkenny a bit more thoroughly. As things stand, Brian Cody knows his attack has been performing to a high standard, with Henry Shefflin back directing, Richie Power enjoying a super year as a controller at centre forward and Michael Rice impressively transformed into a finisher. Centrefield has also flourished with Michael Fennelly clear of injury.

Where stress tests have been more probing, in defence, the picture hasn’t been as reassuring but the reshuffle for the Leinster final looked more secure, even against a full forward line that didn’t manage to score from play.

There have been a number of injury stories floating around, concerning Shefflin, JJ Delaney and Rice but all seem set to start.

Having recovered from cruciate injury, Shefflin has been immense to date and any fitness problems for him would be uncomfortable for Kilkenny, awakening the ghosts of last year to say nothing of the more practical consideration that in the three most recent matches against tomorrow’s opponents he has scored 3-26.

Two years ago Waterford recovered some pride after the horrors of the 2008 All-Ireland final, running the champions to five although the outcome rarely looked in doubt. Surprisingly the team features a great deal fewer changes from 2009 than Kilkenny, who have just half of the side that won that day by five points.

The annihilation by Tipperary was distanced by the feisty response in the All-Ireland quarter-final. The team was set up more coherently through the middle with Liam Lawlor a specialist full back and Michael Walsh restored to number six, Kevin Moran putting in a stormer at centrefield and John Mullane playing well at centre forward.

At full forward Shane Walsh has been enjoying a good year and emphasised that with 1-4 the last day. He also has fond memories of getting two goals against Kilkenny two years ago but whereas Noel Hickey’s presence didn’t prevent the full-back line from looking fallible against Wexford – who could say against Dublin – at least JJ Delaney’s restoration to the wing has locked down Kilkenny’s best half-back formation.

None of which is to deny that legitimate concerns remain for Waterford. It’s hard to see their half forwards making the sort of hay they managed to against a Galway team that had to replace both wing backs. Similarly Moran can’t expect the sort of space he exploited so exuberantly in Thurles when both of Galway’s centrefielders were substituted. If anything this will be a back foot operation given Michael Fennelly’s movement and drive.

But the crux of the matter for the underdogs will be the extent to which they can restrain Kilkenny. The defiance of the straight-marking, one-on-one hurling in the quarter-final doesn’t mean that they won’t need to tread carefully if the match isn’t to end up drifting away from them as surely as it did from Dublin and Wexford in Leinster.

The history of supplemented defensive systems against Kilkenny isn’t that encouraging. Only Clare seven years ago managed seriously to discommode Cody’s team playing the extra man back and that was with the assistance of a sending-off. Yet at the same time engaging in shoot-outs when you’ve a deficiency of artillery isn’t a great idea either.

Waterford’s tenacity is extraordinary and the county tomorrow contests its eighth All-Ireland semi-final in 10 years. Kilkenny on the other hand are competing at this level for the 15th successive year. Furthermore they lost only three of those. There is nothing in the evidence of the season to contradict the bookies’ odds that make Kilkenny 8 to 1 on.

KILKENNY: D Herity; P Murphy, N Hickey, J Tyrrell; T Walsh, B Hogan, JJ Delaney; M Fennelly, M Rice; TJ Reid, R Power, E Larkin; C Fennelly, H Shefflin, R Hogan.

WATERFORD: C Hennessy; D Fives, L Lawlor, N Connors; T Browne, M Walsh, D O’Sullivan; K Moran, S O’Sullivan; S Prendergast, S Molumphy, P Mahony; J Mullane, S Walsh, E Kelly.

Referee: B Kelly (Westmeath).