All-Ireland hurling final: Controlled Limerick can exert enough pressure on Kilkenny to make history

All-Ireland SHC final: Limerick v Kilkenny, Croke Park, Sunday 3.30. Referee: John Keenan (Wicklow) – Live on RTÉ 2 and BBC Two

Ever since the semi-finals there has been a bit of a drift towards Kilkenny in terms of casual opinion – if not on the emotionless boards in bookmakers’ shops. It’s not hard to see why.

The Leinster champions have been buoyant under new management and have retained the O’Keeffe Cup as well as reaching back-to-back All-Irelands. Their resilience has been well attested with the late goal that clipped Galway and the manner in which they managed a potentially fatal reversal of fortune against Clare.

Limerick haven’t been themselves for much of the season, as reflected in a lower scoring rate, and for the second year they reach the final strategising a way around significant injuries.

On review, the final just over 12 months ago doesn’t dilute the sense of surprise that Kilkenny were as close as two points by the final whistle.

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It was a fairly fat two points, though. Limerick never trailed from gun to tape. Kilkenny caught them twice for less than an accumulated two minutes and fired two points in the last minute of injury-time.

Now, it’s no one’s idea of comfort to hold that lead at the end of an All-Ireland final, especially against Kilkenny, but it never looked like a contest they were actually going to win.

[ Joe Canning profiles the Limerick team ]

It’s a laboured way of suggesting that, even with an improvement, Kilkenny may not be able to reverse last year’s outcome.

There are however elements of last year that Derek Lyng and his selectors will have addressed. They’re unlikely to be as transfixed by the Quaid puck-outs, which reaped an immense harvest for the champions, leading in terms of primary or secondary assists to nearly half the scores.

Circumstances differ for a start. Last year’s half-forward line of an in-form Gearóid Hegarty, Tom Morrissey and Kyle Hayes had a definite advantage in that regard, which isn’t as easy to replicate with Hayes back in defence, Hegarty in uncertain form, David Reidy, although experienced, starting an All-Ireland for the first time and an admittedly top-performing Morrissey.

Reidy’s ascent from reliable and at times crucial replacement to starter has come about because of Declan Hannon’s injury, which really compounds Seán Finn’s absence, as the captain’s ability to patrol the approaches to his full-back line as well as his ‘quarter-backing’ distribution won’t be replicated by Will O’Donoghue, however solid he’ll be.

Kilkenny have a new centrefield this time around and both Conor Fogarty and Adrian Mullen have been having fine seasons. They find themselves up against Darragh O’Donovan in the form of his career and twice HOTY Cian Lynch, who missed last year and has only incrementally got back to his best – if that was the message of his semi-final display.

Might he switch in and out with Reidy to pressurise Richie Reid and deter him from too much wandering and mischief making?

[ NIcky English profiles the Kilkenny team ]

So, the middle third, which is actually the middle half in terms of personnel is a bit different to last year but it remains Limerick’s territory whereas the inside lines tilt to the challengers – the Ballyhale axis of TJ Reid and Eoin Cody posing serious threat whereas Huw Lawlor is the best full back in the championship and with Tommy Walsh, did well on Aaron Gillane and Séamus Flanagan in 2022.

One observation from Limerick suggested the crazy speeded-up carousel of a season has spun around so fast, week on week ,that the four-in-a-row has had hardly any airing.

Is it a complete red herring? Hmmm. Two counties, Cork and Kilkenny, have achieved it but of the other seven to fall short after completing a three-in-a-row, only one even made it out of their province the following year.

Limerick are therefore the first to arrive in a final with history at their fingertips.

Kilkenny are hurling with such purpose and – to deploy an oxymoron – controlled abandon that it’s perfectly possible to see them winning if Limerick come up short in any of a few respects.

Defending the full-back line has to be competitive and the intent clear to not allow Cody to run riot. Gillane, a front-runner for HOTY, needs to improve on last year when his full fitness was suspect.

Finally Lynch, as captain and inspiration, needs to be leading by example. No one is as capable of ‘making things happen’ and the feeling is that if he comes to play, Limerick will win.

Kilkenny have in their two biggest wins ruthlessly exploited opposition mistakes, most obviously in the Leinster final, and to an extent against Clare, who sabotaged their own comeback.

Will as practised and well drilled a collective as the champions suddenly become prone to such lapses? They didn’t become so hard to beat –- one defeat in four years – by being error prone.