Tactical analysis: Aerial dominance and nous in final third will prove pivotal in decisive football weekend

It has been hard to gauge exactly where everyone stands in the race for Sam Maguire, but all should be clearer after the final round of group games this weekend, where every match has something at stake.

One of the key aspects of the final round is the fact that teams have two weeks of preparation time. That leaves plenty of time to identify opposition strengths and weaknesses.

It is very hard to call the games as we head into the weekend. Games are taking on a life of their own as teams try to make the new rules work best for them. It has led to some thrilling games and no shortage of drama.

Three of the biggest games are Dublin v Derry and Armagh v Galway on Saturday, and Mayo v Donegal on Sunday, so let’s take a look at some of the strengths of each of the six teams.

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Mayo

As Mayo approach Donegal in a do-or-die game, they will be hoping the kickout zone will be as profitable for them as it was against Tyrone. Mayo opted to go long for all of Colm Reape’s 16 kickouts and managed to secure possession on 12 out of 16 (75 per cent).

Mayo scored 1-6 from these 12 won, while Tyrone scored 1-1 from their four won. Mayo would have been happy with their five-point profit from their own kickout. It would be easy to look at these figures in isolation and say that Mayo were excellent at the breaking ball zone, but interestingly, they won three of these kickouts as a result of Tyrone fouls in the air, trying to shield the ball through.

In the absence of Tyrone’s Brian Kennedy, it would have made sense for Reape to avoid Conn Kilpatrick, but going right down his throat was an aspect of Mayo’s play that showed bravery and a willingness to fight. They made sure Kilpatrick won nothing clean, through subtle and not-so-subtle contact on the Edendork man in the air. They were also ravenous on the breaking ball, often with two men at the front of the break.

Mayo worked hard to get men around the breaking ball in the landing zone.

Mayo tried to curb the influence of Conn Kilpatrick by stopping him getting off the ground.

Additionally, Mayo showed a strong hand on the Niall Morgan kickout, winning nine out of 12 (75 per cent) that were sent long. Over the course of the encounter across kickouts in both directions, that is a staggering 21/28 (75 per cent) of the long kickouts won by Mayo. This really indicated their hunger for the battle.

However, Mayo also managed to put Tyrone under severe pressure on their short kickouts, as Tyrone only returned 0-3 from their 12 short kickouts won. Mayo even managed to spoil one short one, as Davitt Neary turned over Shea O’Hare when Morgan didn’t get his kickout wide enough.

Mayo also smartly fouled the first receiver on the Tyrone kickout on three occasions, allowing all the Mayo bodies behind to reset. In further emphasising this cuteness, they managed to not concede a 50m penalty on any of these. Overall, Mayo scored 0-6 from the Tyrone kickout, with Malachy O’Rourke’s men only managing a point more than that, 0-7.

Mayo managed to force lots of pressure on the Tyrone kickout, even when they went short, such as Davitt Neary turning over Shea O’Hare on this kickout.

The big question as Mayo head for Dr Hyde Park to face Donegal is whether they can replicate such a performance on the kickout. Donegal are unlikely to be as profligate if they get hands on ball on their own short kickouts and there is the added risk of goalkeeper Shaun Patton – if he’s back – going over the break zone.

Donegal

With their Atlantic coastline, Donegal are used to waves. When they get their running game going from deep, those waves can be hard to stop. Two scores before half-time against Cavan, initiated from defensive turnovers that led to 1-1 at the far end of the field, highlighted this strength.

The first score started as Eoghán Bán Gallagher intercepted a loopy Cavan handpass, then Donegal attacked in unison as the ball went through hands of both Ciaran Moore and Peadar Mogan, with Ryan McHugh also ahead of the ball, before a Cavan foul - Patrick McBrearty scored the resultant free.

Then a turnover and a powerful Finbarr Roarty burst started from behind where the ball was turned over and ended with him palming the ball to the net, as he left the tracking Cavan men in his wake. This sent Donegal into half-time on a high after a lot of good Cavan work in that opening half was wiped out.

In the first half, Donegal scored 1-6 (including a two-pointer) from the 10 possessions that originated behind their 45m line, eight from turnovers on Cavan and another two short kickouts from Gavin Mulreany.

Donegal's Finbarr Roarty started his run from behind where the turnover occurred.

And it ended with Roarty palming the ball to the net.

This relentless efficiency from ball originating inside their own 45m line continued in the second half, as another seven turnovers and a short kickout led to a further 2-3. Donegal by the end of the game scored 3-9 from the 19 attacks that originated inside their own 45. This is a warning to Mayo to make sure that they don’t allow Donegal to get possession in this area, as the punishment will be more severe than what Tyrone served up.

Dublin

Armagh got a lot of credit coming out of Croke Park two Sundays ago, but equally Dublin were nowhere near as bad as it was portrayed. It is easy to point to the missed efforts, as Dublin hit 16/37 efforts (43 per cent), and there was also the uncharacteristic three-up breaches.

Dublin will have come away from the game very happy with how they set up on Ethan Rafferty’s kickouts. With their zonal approach, they forced Rafferty to try to execute high-risk kicks into pockets of space.

Dublin's zonal press meant Ethan Rafferty was occasionally forced to go wide with his kicks.

Dublin's zonal press here forces Rafferty to make a risky chip into a congested area.

Dublin won 15/33 (45 per cent) of the Armagh kickout, but they didn’t convert this strength to the scoreboard. Rafferty is really accomplished at striking the ball and this zonal set-up may yield better dividends for Dublin in Newry.

Ethen Rafferty getting off a perfect kickout in Croke Park - Dublin's press may yield better returns against someone not as accomplished as Rafferty.

Derry

Are Derry getting back to being the side that promised so much in recent years? Not quite, but some of their key players are back performing at a high level and others are delivering high-energy performances. Niall Loughlin was one of these, but so was Conor Glass.

The Glen man was back to his best, as he scored 1-3, assisted 0-3 and secondary assisted another 0-2. That is a direct impact on 1-8 of Derry’s scores. His awareness of space and ability to manipulate the Galway defence shows a man at the top of his game.

Derry create the space to allow Conor Glass take up a scoring position.

For the second backdoor cut, Derry manipulate the space by moving eight players inside the 20m line while Conor Glass assesses the space around him.

Having moved backwards before making his run, Glass then advances with his teammates smartly keeping their shape to afford him space.

Glass was on hand in the clutch moments when Derry needed leaders. After Galway’s first goal, he was there to palm the ball to the back of the net. He was a key man again after Galway’s fourth goal, as he slipped John Maher (who was specifically detailed to mark him when Derry were in possession) with a backdoor cut to set up the Derry equaliser.

However, it is not necessarily these on-the-ball actions where he is most influential for the team. He was marauding around the field, making his presence felt at the tackle zone as he imposed himself physically on Galway. It is often hard to get a true gauge of the defensive output of a player, but he was involved in turnovers, tackles and slowing attacks throughout the encounter.

On two occasions, with Cillian McDaid in the first half and Jack Glynn in the second half, his ferocity in the tackle led to a break in play as the Galway men required medical attention. His contact and tackle technique as Seán Kelly attacked the goal during the Galway resurgence contributed to the defensive display.

Armagh

Armagh have shown really strong attacking creativity over the past number of years. The basketball influence of Kieran Donaghy along with the thirst for innovation in the management when it comes to finding an extra percent advantage is always evident.

Armagh showed a number of excellent screens in the encounter at Croke Park which helped to unlock the Dublin defence. One particular screen, by Rory Grugan on Sean MacMahon in the 24th minute, allowed Andrew Murnin glide in for a shot at goal. It brought Stephen Cluxton into action with a great save. The ease of cutting through the Dublin defence really highlighted the power of such screens. Armagh do this regularly and to great effect.

Rory Grugan screen creates space for Andrew Murnin to move into - the effort on goal was saved by Stephen Cluxton.

A closer image of Armagh's Rory Grugan creating the space for Andrew Murnin.

The Orchard county were lauded last year for their attacking innovation in terms of set plays and while the game has become faster with the new rules, they are still able to manufacture them and execute.

One such attack took place in the 16th minute. Éamonn Fitzmaurice on RTÉ correctly identified that Dublin stayed zonal as Armagh tried to set up an overload in attack. After Armagh probed the weak side, they quickly transferred the ball back to the other side of the pitch through Oisín Conaty and Grugan shot a controlled two-pointer.

Kieran McGeeney has recently described Grugan as “one of the best players I’ve ever seen”. Stopping the Ballymacnab man will be top of Galway manager Pádraic Joyce’s priority list this weekend.

Rory Grugan signals for Armagh to create the move - they have succeeded in setting up setplays this season despite the game being faster.

After probing one side, Oisín Conaty switches the ball across the pitch with a kick to Rory Grugan in space.

Galway

There are many moving parts with Galway. If consistency and cohesion arrives, they will be very hard to stop. The question is how does that consistency and cohesion materialise?

Joyce will be hoping to have his best players on the field, but he will also be looking to have the players on the field who enable those stars to function. As was mentioned with Conor Glass, he makes such an impact off the ball and is unselfish in his actions. Can Galway get a similar return from their on-ball stars?

One thing we know for sure is that this Galway set-up is a cut-throat environment. The game against Derry finished with Paul Conroy, Cillian McDaid and Shane Walsh all watching from the bench. There are not many teams that can leave players of their quality on the line and stage a comeback like the Tribesmen did.

Armagh have already qualified for the next phase but any question of this being a soft fixture is nonsense. The Galway v Armagh rivalry has become one of the best in the country. If past evidence is anything to go by, a one-score game is likely to materialise. It could go either way in Breffni Park.

Analysing an opposition on one game is layered with danger as there is so much individual context to a one-off game. What materialised in the round-two fixtures is unlikely to be an indicator of what happens in the round-three games.

The matches are so variable and unpredictable at the moment, swinging wildly based on how teams set up for the opposition and how the opposition sets up for them. This is great news for supporters, but it also means management and analysis teams are second guessing everything.

Paul O’Brien is a performance analyst with The Performance Process.