Kerry will have a say in final foes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUES ANALYSIS:THE FINAL day of the regulation National League season has in recent years become one of the high points of the competition. With all matches played at the same time and scoring difference separating any teams tied on points, table positions in the four divisions fluctuate during the afternoon.

Determining factors for counties level on points and scoring difference is regulated by Rule 117, which stipulates the next determinants as: highest total for, where two teams are involved the result of their previous meeting in the competition and finally, scoring average, ie total conceded divided by total scored (this is curious given teams with the same scoring difference and the same total scored will have the same average).

Division One:There are no dead rubbers on the final day here. Westmeath are relegated but in their final match face a Dublin team needing to win well to avoid joining them. Kerry have qualified for the final but the identity of their opponents is still unknown. Jack O'Connor's side will have an influence on that question, as should they fail to beat Galway, the Connacht champions will contest the title two weeks later.

If, however, Kerry defeat Liam Sammon’s team, there is every chance for Derry to creep into second place by virtue of scoring difference. At the moment they trail Galway by five points (16-21) in that regard but were Galway to lose their final match and Derry to beat Donegal it would require only relatively modest winning margins (say, two three-point wins) to turn that around in the holders’ favour.

At the other end of the table the remaining four counties – Dublin, Donegal, Tyrone and Mayo – could all accompany Westmeath although scoring difference makes the latter two less likely candidates. The probable outcome will be between Dublin and Donegal. Should John Joe Doherty’s team beat Derry they are safe but if that ends in a draw and Dublin win by four or five points against Westmeath, the Leinster champions will survive; if they don’t there is a chance – depending on how Kildare fare in Division Two – that no counties from the province will be in the top flight, an unprecedented situation since the modern league format was adopted.

Division Two:After Monaghan's defeat of Cork four counties are in contention for promotion. As well as the above two Kildare, also on nine points and leading the table on scoring difference, and Armagh, on eight, can find themselves in the lift going up when the season ends.

On form Kildare and Monaghan should beat Meath and Laois although both must travel. In the case of away victories in both fixtures Cork would need to beat Armagh to secure promotion. A win would probably suffice, as their scoring difference is seven superior to Monaghan’s. Kildare have the best difference and a victory looks certain to be enough for them. Armagh must beat Cork and hope Kildare or Monaghan slip up.

Relegation in the division has already been finalised. Wexford and Fermanagh, both of whom were promoted last year from Division Three, return there.

Division Three:In the most competitive division every county has something to fight for apart from surprise team Tipperary who have already nailed promotion just 12 months after coming up from Division Four. Down are strongly positioned to follow and will need to lose to Roscommon by 11 points if their opponents are to head them off at the pass. If Down lose by a smaller margin they'll still be vulnerable to an outsize victory by Cavan over Louth or by Limerick over Offaly. Limerick are also vulnerable to relegation if they lose, as are Cavan and Roscommon were they to lose heavily enough.

Longford are the prime candidates for relegation. They can survive by defeating Tipperary and hoping that Offaly lose.

Division Four:Antrim are effectively promoted. Although they have just one match left, against promotion hopefuls Waterford they would have to lose spectacularly to give their opponents or Sligo the chance of catching their scoring difference, which is currently 36 superior to Sligo's and 53 better than Waterford's. Leitrim technically have an outside chance should Sligo and Waterford not be able to exceed 11 points.