Ascot’s Champions Day countdown once again set to be dominated by weather outlook

The 13th renewal of British Champions Day could once again be unlucky with the weather as testing ground conditions look set to prevail for Ascot’s showpiece climax to the cross-channel Flat racing season on Saturday.

Although officially good ground prevailed for the inaugural Champions Day extravaganza in 2011, only once since then has it been replicated, in 2016 when Almanzor landed the featured Champion Stakes.

Otherwise, the emphasis has mostly been on the capacity of horses to act on soft going, something that proved beyond Baaeed who lost his unbeaten record on a final career start in the Champion Stakes a year ago.

That was on an officially good to soft surface, similar to 2021, but better than the four years prior to that, including in 2019 which took place on heavy ground. Conditions were so bad on that occasion that the Ascot authorities were forced to move some of the action to its inner National Hunt course.

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The official Ascot going was soft on Monday but with up to 20mm of rainfall anticipated to fall before racing at the weekend, the prospect of a similar switch is already being considered.

“Around 15-20mm is kind of the predicted amount in total from Wednesday through to Saturday but that could change. That would be highly likely to prompt a change to the inner track,” said Ascot’s clerk of the course, Chris Stickels.

“The race conditions at the moment state that if heavy features in the going description on the round course, then races will move to the inner track.

“So that is potentially on the cards and if we had that volume of rain then I would imagine we would be talking about some heavy ground on the round course and therefore those round course races could move to the inner track.

“Of course, we’re not there yet, we’re only soft ground and we haven’t had any rain since Friday. But if we did get that amount, there is the potential,” he added.

It is a prospect likely to put a spotlight once again on the advisability of holding a prestigious programme containing four Group One races on a relatively late date in the season at a track which can be famously testing when conditions are wet.

Champions Day was introduced to provide a climax to the season by creating the richest single day’s racing on the cross-channel calendar. Accomplishing it meant transferring the Champion Stakes from Newmarket, but too often it has appeared to throw up scenarios for specialist performers.

Connections of the Juddmonte International winner Mostahdaf have already indicated they won’t line up for the Champion Stakes if faced with soft ground, while his stable companion Nashwa may also miss out for the same reason.

Aidan O’Brien’s Paddington is in the Champion but is more likely to revert to a mile for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes having been beaten for the first time this season by Mostahdaf at York.

O’Brien, who turned 54 on Monday, has another record in his sights as a fifth QEII success would see him emulate Saaed Bin Suroor’s tally in the race.

Paddington’s appearance tees up the mouthwatering prospect of a clash with Dermot Weld’s star filly Tahiyra, although the Curragh trainer is among those who will be paying particularly close attention to the weather outlook for the coming week.

“She is all set to take part on Saturday provided the ground is suitable,” Weld explained on Monday, although his wish for “no extremes” might prove optimistic.

“She’s a very dependable and consistent filly and I’m quite sure she’ll run a very good race. My only concern now would be the weather forecast for Friday night and Saturday morning,” he added.

The prospect of extreme conditions helped connections of the soft-ground loving Angel Bleu supplement the horse into the QEII at Monday’s acceptance stage and the Henry de Bromhead-trained Term Of Endearment was also added to the Filly & Mare contest.

The De Bromhead hope landed the Group Three Give Thanks Stakes at Cork in August on a card abandoned after her victory due to standing water on the track.

One eagerly anticipated clash that should be unaffected is the meeting of the star stayers Kyprios and Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup.

Kyprios returned to action with a second to Eldar Eldarov in last month’s Irish Leger and is likely to strip fitter now for a meeting with Trueshan, who is pursuing four-in-a-row in the race.

Elsewhere, Gowran’s Tuesday programme has a two-year-old maiden containing a trio of Ballydoyle hopefuls, although a newcomer could be a dangerous rival.

Man Of Worth is a son of Sea The Stars out of Making Light who won the Park Express Stakes in a bog. The colt holds an Irish Guineas entry next year.