Old O’Connor’s 2024 Racing Almanac: Predictions, tips, sure things and political longshots

1) It might be a head-bobber of a finish but belated Government recognition that including racing channels in a gambling advertising ban is no legislative hill to die on might still occur. Effective legislation is rooted in the real world and it’s a reality that racing and betting are two sides of the one coin. No other sport is so routinely reported through the prism of odds. That mightn’t be palatable to some, but ignoring it invites a world of unintended consequences.

2) If Galopin Des Champs gets to Cheltenham in the fullness of health, he’s as good as past the post. What he did at Leopardstown over Christmas was one of the great steeplechase performances of the modern era. Willie Mullins’s star went through the line like he was only getting going. It suggests a special talent at the height of his powers. Back-to-back Gold Cups will prove it.

3) The delay in publishing a report on the financial matters of “grave concern” at the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board is ominous. Before Christmas, the Oireachtas Agriculture Committee chairman said it was “completely and utterly unacceptable”. That’s usually a hurry-up to get things moving. However, the fact there has not even been a puff of white smoke from Mazars increasingly suggests an explosive outcome that’ll fuel those who argue the regulatory structure isn’t fit for purpose.

4) Last year saw Aidan O’Brien achieve some notable landmarks, including becoming Royal Ascot’s most successful ever trainer. He also secured over 100 European Classic wins and eased past 4,000 career winners in total. That the Master of Ballydoyle isn’t weeping for a lack of worlds to conquer is no surprise considering he might be going into 2024 Classics with his most powerful ever team. An unprecedented clean sweep of every English and Irish Classic will top everything to date.

River Tiber set to lead Ballydoyle team into Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh

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Luke Comer’s appeal against three-year licence suspension to start on Wednesday

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Bucanero Fuerte books Royal Ascot place with successful return to action at Naas

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Gordon Elliott turns to Mark Walsh for ride on Irish Point in Saturday’s French Champion Hurdle at Auteuil

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5) Picture the scene: the Government collapses, sparking a snap general election that sees Sinn Féin sweep into power. No longer hurling on the ditch and needing diversions as they struggle to deliver on campaign promises, they need to quickly appease the base by being seen to shake up an establishment of which they’re now in charge. And there’s little that smacks of establishment more than the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board.

Could there be easier raw meat to throw to the Shinner base than getting tough with a private elite club policing the Sport of Kings with public money that appears to get used in rather cavalier fashion (some of them have even been known to wear bowler hats)? As a potential populist target, beating up on the old Turf Club lifts out like a Mullins bumper runner.

6) Remember all the talk about splits after five tracks rebelled over media rights money to form United Irish Racecourses a year ago? It got nasty for a while and that bitterness hasn’t gone away you know. With track income linked to betting turnover, and the cross-channel gambling industry in flux, old grudges over how spoils are divided could get reheated very quickly.

7) Emboldened by the extensive coverage arising from their protests at last year’s Grand National, animal rights groups will target Aintree with even more determination this time. Nothing succeeds like success and never mind how adolescent some of their rewilding theories were revealed to be, there’s no arguing with the media traction generated by hitching their protest wagon to the National. It will make for a particularly fraught build-up to the sport’s biggest shop window.

8) “He really is our Frankel,” Michael Tabor said after City Of Troy won the Dewhurst. Everyone who relishes watching a great horse in action will hope he’s right, perhaps no one more than Aidan O’Brien. He’s done everything bar having an undisputed “great” through his hands. The mercurial Hawk Wing remains O’Brien’s highest-rated runner and no one pretends he’s on the pantheon.

But the bar has been set for City Of Troy and it couldn’t be higher. Frankel and Sea The Stars set the benchmark in Europe this century. Given such heady billing by his connections, the tantalising thought is that City Of Troy might emulate that pair of true champions. However, we’ve been here before and presuming on precocity training on usually turns out to be an expensive indulgence.

9) A two-year trial of “Premier” racing in Britain is under way, just the sort of “morkoting” gimmick to fizzle out in a couple of months. Pinning a label to something and dressing it up in advertising jargon is nothing new, and fiddly nonsense such as this isn’t fooling anyone.

10) Go west might once have been advised but racing’s focus is increasingly to the east and the powerhouse that is Japan. Equinox was the global topper in 2023 and the face of an increasingly confident industry whose popularity – both in terms of betting and broad popular appeal – is the envy of the world. Japanese influence has been growing rapidly in recent years. What we’ve seen to date may prove only a tip of the iceberg.

Something for the weekend

The first Grade One of 2024 finally takes place at Naas on Friday and if it comes down to a head-to-head between Firefox and ILE ATLANTIQUE (1.42), then the latter can emerge on top. He has three parts of a length to make up on his rival on bumper form last season but impressed on his jumping debut at Gowran and the stretch out to 2½ miles should really suit.

Banbridge is the headline Irish act for Saturday’s Grade Two at Kempton but at much bigger odds, and with a first-time tongue-strap, JANIDIL (2.07) could upset the reckoning.