The biggest Betfred Derby field in 22 years lines up at Epsom on Saturday, and if the old saying is “the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty”, the only sure thing about this 246th renewal of racing’s blue riband appears to be unpredictability.
Even what the elements might do is up in the air, with an unsettled weather outlook making likely ground conditions unclear.
The last properly soft ground Derby was in 1983 when Teenoso was the last of Lester Piggott’s nine winners. The Long Fellow knew Epsom better than anyone and followed a traditional route to glory. But should the going turn testing enough, it might prompt some enterprising soul to even try his luck up the stands rail, a Derby scenario no one alive can recall happening before.
A 19-runner field is the biggest since Kris Kin won in 2003 and reflects a puzzling Derby with no outstanding candidate, and plenty prepared to try their luck in the circumstances.
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If odds were cramped about racing’s two superpowers, Coolmore and Godolphin, being in the mix, the presence of the €7,000 purchase Al Wasl Storm smacks of a rare lottery element. A pair of French supplementary entries at nearly €89,000 each suggests a have-a-go attitude too.
One of them is Midak, carrying the colours of the late Aga Khan, a five-time Derby winner in whose memory the race is named.
Aidan O’Brien’s astonishing Derby record means he’s looking for an 11th victory in the classic. It includes a historic hat-trick between 2012 and 2014, which the Irish trainer is now looking to repeat following victories for Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy a year ago.
Much speculation about which of the Ballydoyle trio Ryan Moore would ride ended midweek when he opted for Delacroix rather than The Lion In Winter. Colin Keane comes in for the latter, while Wayne Lordan teams up with Chester Vase winner Lambourn.
There is another Irish interest with Joseph O’Brien’s outsider Tennessee Stud, who might not yet prove to be such a long-shot since he won a Group One as a two-year-old on heavy ground.
Scrambling to find form in easy conditions might permeate much of the Derby build-up and those pinning their faith in Moore’s judgment can point to Delacroix’s narrow defeat in last year’s Futurity.
He was beaten a nose by Hotazhell on that occasion, although it looked to be through rawness as much as anything else. In a pair of Leopardstown trials this season, the strapping son of Dubawi has looked much more the finished article.
It’s hardly surprising, then, that Moore has opted for him. The Lion In Winter was a long-time favourite for the classics, only to have a setback before ever running this year. He then put in an unconvincing display on his Dante comeback.
O’Brien is confident of much better now, and those who doubted him in the last two Derby outcomes will have been chastened enough to factor that into calculations.
How likely The Lion is to be tamed by the ground is an unknown factor, one that will also be to the forefront of Godolphin’s minds for their 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court.
It could be a long way from the Dubai desert where he ran in March before getting first run on Field Of Gold at Newmarket. Sea The Stars in 2009 was the last to complete the Guineas-Derby double. Before him, it was 20 years back to Nashwan. To date, at least, Ruling Court hasn’t smacked of being quite in that class.
The limits of Pride Of Arras’s ability are unknown. He won the Dante in just his second start for Galway rider Rossa Ryan. His trainer, Ralph Beckett, is proven at delivering on the big occasion, including the Arc with Bluestocking. Beckett also saddles Stanhope Gardens.
Numbers alone mean the chances of getting caught in deadwood around Epsom’s famously tricky contours are increased. With everyone fancying their chances of picking up some sort of pieces, space will be at a premium.
Jockeyship could prove crucial. After his inspired French Derby effort on Camille Pissarro last weekend, Moore’s confidence will be a plus to Delacroix’s chance of giving the English man a fifth Derby victory. That would put him level with a trio of riders from the 19th century that includes the legendary Fred Archer.
In contrast, James Doyle’s best in eight Derby rides to date has been a meagre sixth place. He teams up with the Dante runner-up Damysus.
He is a first Derby runner for the Wathnan operation, which is backed by the Emir of Qatar. Since its emergence two years ago, Wathnan has become prominent quickly and the same looks to apply to Damysus, who debuted at lowly Southwell in December.
His Dante effort, when last off the bridle and raced from the back off an ordinary pace, was a big leap. If that progress has continued, the Frankel colt could prove each-way value.
