2023 by the numbers: Blunt Munster, fantastic Forde and what might have been with Healy

Evolution is never perfectly linear. Just ask Munster.

Much has been made of the recent shift to a more possession-focused attack under Mike Prendergast after the perceived tight, kick-heavy game plan of the Johann van Graan era.

The numbers bear this out, but after riding the crest of a wave to the URC title last year, Munster’s new attack has faltered over the first eight rounds of this season’s campaign.

Heading into the New Year’s Day interpro against Connacht, Munster rank 12th of 16 teams in the competition for the most important stat – points scored (21.9 per match). Within that, the province is second in the league for average carries per match (121) but only 10th for metres made (341) and 11th for defenders beaten (16.8).

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Munster don’t kick the ball away as often as they used to, ranking 13th for number of kicks made per match (21.8). They also don’t spend large parts of matches defending. They turn the ball over frequently (6.9 times per match, joint third highest in the league) without having to make plenty of tackles (116 per match, only 13th highest). Attacking efficiency to match the defensive strength has eluded Munster.

They have shown the ability to carve teams open. Individual passages stand out, such as the end-to-end score for Tom Ahern against Glasgow, or the series of offloads that set up Antoine Frisch to dot down in the corner vs Exeter. Yet there has been an inability to stitch those passages together into consistent excellence.

Given the volume of carries and low number of kicks, perhaps Munster are guilty of overplaying. Or maybe this attacking regression into the middle of the pack shows that the squad is still adjusting to Prendergast’s system, that the title run came earlier than expected in the development phase

Either way, improving a middling record that has yet to feature an away win this season will require Munster’s attacking results to catch up with the size of their effort.

Ben Healy hints at what might have been

From team stats to individual ones, plenty of Irish players have stood out so far this URC campaign.

Three Irish players are in the top four for line breaks made this season. Diarmuid Kilgallen (joint top with 10), Jacob Stockdale and Caolin Blade (joint third with nine) have all proved elusive carriers.

Ulster’s David McCann is fourth in the league for turnovers made (eight), while Connacht’s Niall Murray has made the joint most lineout steals (five).

Gavin Coombes comfortably leads the league in carries with 119 – next best is 85 – meaning it is no surprise he is also top for carries over the gainline with 51. The backrow is 10th for tackles with 86.

You could point to some inefficiency in that Coombes is a high volume, lowish reward player with less than 50 per cent of his carries making it over the gain line. Regardless, the ability to get through such a workload on both sides of the ball shows an impressive level of fitness.

Further afield, Ben Healy’s individual numbers are staggering despite Edinburgh’s mid-table run of form.

Healy has made the most kicks for the most metres in play this campaign. Yet while his 77 kicks are only one higher than second in the competition, his kick metres total – 2376 – is over 400m better than next best. Healy’s 10 retained kicks are also fourth most in the league.

His distribution looks to match the kicking, with 10 offloads (fifth highest in the league) and four try assists (joint third highest figure) showing off his passing range.

Given their own attacking inefficiency and low kick total this year, Munster might be forgiven for wondering what might have been.

Fantastic Mr Forde

Taking 2023 as a whole, if there is one uncapped player who has done the most to bang the door down for a maiden Ireland call-up, it is Connacht centre Cathal Forde.

Stats company Opta released a top-five rankings for the best inside centres of 2023. They didn’t reveal precisely what categories they used to create the list, but according to the Opta Index, the best 12 in men’s club and international rugby on a per 80 minute basis was Bundee Aki.

No surprises there. But coming in at number three, and the only uncapped player on the list? Cathal Forde.

In Connacht’s round one URC victory over the Ospreys in October, Forde made 139 metres with the ball in hand. That is the highest single figure recorded by a centre in a URC game this season.

Similar to his Connacht team-mate Aki, Forde’s work rate as a battering ram at 12 is very high. His 77 carries in this URC campaign see him in joint seventh in the league for that statistic. He has been efficient with that carrying work, beating 18 defenders in total, the joint-ninth highest figure.

It seems that Ireland’s best statistical performers in recent times play positions where the national side is well stocked. Coombes’s form has not been rewarded due to congestion in the backrow, while Forde finds himself behind the world’s form centre in Aki, Leinster’s Robbie Henshaw and Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey.

Regardless, all players can do is ask the question and Forde has done that for a full calendar year.

Number: 2

The number Ulster victories in their last 21 visits to the RDS to take on Leinster. The last came in 2021.

Quote

“I love this negativity; it’s fantastic. Keep going. You ought to give yourselves uppercuts.” – Former Australia coach Eddie Jones with one of the quotes of 2023 when criticising journalists for daring to question his win-loss record ahead of the World Cup.

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