Champions Cup semi-final: Leinster v Northampton Saints, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 5.30 – Live on RTÉ 2 and Premier Sports 1
There seems to be a widely held assumption, unnervingly so, that Leinster will progress to their fourth Champions Cup final in succession, as if the threat of the reigning English champions is being largely ignored. Leinster are 19-point favourites and fully three weeks on from a less than half-full quarter-final scheduled at six days’ notice, disappointingly this semi-final looks like being some way short of a sell-out.
Similarly, Northampton were rank outsiders for last season’s semi-final at an 82,300 sold-out Croke Park when giving Leinster an almighty scare before losing 20-17. But the theory goes, and it has some validity, that from a Leinster perspective, well, forewarned is forearmed.
In addition, as their 62-0 and 52-0 wins at home to Harlequins and Glasgow in the previous rounds demonstrate, Leinster have rediscovered their attacking accuracy to augment a defensive structure which is now much more finely tuned than a year ago.
While there had been palpable player buy-in to Jacques Nienaber’s invigorating and higher-risk, higher-reward new defence, a year on he’s had a full pre-season and another season to work with the squad.
The Counter Ruck: the rugby newsletter from The Irish Times
Leinster v Northampton: Mystery surrounds decision not to award late match-winning try
Leo Cullen believes he is man to lead Leinster forward despite loss to Northampton
Leinster’s Champions Cup quest flounders in face of Northampton’s attacking brilliance
Leinster vs Northampton - the comeback final revisited
The proof is in the pudding. Earlier this season, Nienaber noted that Leinster had reduced the average points scored against them to 12 in the URC, and they have taken this to another level in the Champions Cup.
Last season, Leinster went into their semi-final against Northampton having conceded an average of 1.5 tries, and almost 15 points, per game. This season, they have brought those figures down to 1.1 and nine points per game, while at the same time their try-scoring average has increased from 4.5 to 5.5.
Furthermore, of course, the acquisitions of Rabah Slimani and the world-class duo of RG Snyman and Jordie Barrett, has strengthened Leinster’s squad significantly.
Despite Barrett’s exceptional display in the quarter-final, Leo Cullen has opted to reinstate Robbie Henshaw, as well as Dan Sheehan and Caelan Doris, all of whom were replacements against Glasgow. The in-form duo of Max Deegan and Tommy O’Brien are retained in an otherwise unchanged side.
The tactic of starting Cian Healy and reducing Andrew Porter’s workload is again employed, and Porter, Slimani, Luke McGrath and Ross Byrne are joined among the replacements by the fit-again Ryan Baird, Jack Conan and, of course, Barrett. Some bench.
In his inimitably cryptic response to being asked were there any restrictions on him picking Barrett, Cullen appeared to confirm there were not any.
“Aw, this is top-secret now, so it is. This might upset people,” said Cullen, laughing, before adding: “You can’t get into the ins and outs, but he could have got picked, yes. Everyone wants to know. There’s always bits in the background that go on ... it depends who you ask.”
While Northampton went on to win the Premiership after last season’s defeat by Leinster, they’ve since lost some influential players such as Courtney Lawes and sit eighth domestically after an injury-afflicted campaign.
However, although still missing George Furbank, they have game breakers in likely Lions halfbacks Alex Mitchell and Fin Smith, as well as winger Tommy Freeman (12 tries in his last nine games for club and country), and have unleased the sensationally fleet-footed academy graduate Henry Pollock on the world, the new shining young star of the English game with genuine X-factor.
After three successive wins, they’ve also found more momentum than at any other point this season. They are a proven big-game team. In seven knock-out ties over the last two seasons, Northampton have won six, their only loss being that semi-final against Leinster. Put another way, Northampton are probably the most dangerous English side Leinster could face this weekend.
If Leinster win, they will become the first side ever to reach four successive finals. It’s not something they’re liable to receive much credit for, or even afford themselves, given the magnificent obsession for a fifth star has only been accentuated by three final losses in a row.
“I think we’re still pretty obsessed with it,” admitted Jack Conan on the eve of this semi-final. “But it’s one of those things; you can’t look too far down the road and it’s only ever about the next hurdle. We haven’t spoken about a final, it’s just about the next game, whether it was Harlequins, Glasgow into Northampton.
“We’ve been unbelievably consistent the last few years but not getting over the line makes you want it that bit more. You’ve got to go back, look at yourselves throughout the year and what did we miss as individuals and as a collective?
“It definitely adds to the desire. How much you want it, how much you’re willing to work and put your body on the line for your mates, for the organisation. Hopefully this year is a bit different. Hopefully.”
Conan, who started all three Lions Tests four years ago, used the same adjective with regard to making the cut when Andy Farrell unveils his playing squad for the tour to Australia next Thursday.
To add to this game’s many subplots, there are also at least four matchups with Lions connotations, namely Josh van der Flier v Pollock, Jamison Gibson-Park v Mitchell, Sam Prendergast v Smith and James Lowe v Freeman.
It thus seems a shame that this game, which falls under the auspices of the EPCR, will not be anything like a sell-out. EPCR use phrases such as working “in conjunction with” and “collaboratively” with Leinster and the IRFU. But they evidently did not adhere to the ticket strategy and pricing which Leinster shared with them.
As well as refusing to accept any blame, the EPCR were maintaining that by Friday lunchtime sales were at 40,000, with an anticipated attendance of 44,000. Yet according to Ticketmaster, by that stage sales were at 37,000, and only hit 38,000 by late Friday afternoon.
Cullen sought to underline the positives in a potential 40-plus crowd and good-naturedly implored others to come along. “Get off the TV, get up off your couch, turn the radio off, or actually bring your radio to the game. And come to the game. Yeah, live sport – it’s hard to beat it.”
LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Tommy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, RG Snyman; Max Deegan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Andrew Porter, Rabah Slimani, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Jordie Barrett.
NORTHAMPTON: James Ramm; Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall (capt), Rory Hutchinson, Tom Litchfield; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Emmanuel Iyogun, Curtis Langdon, Trevor Davison; Temo Mayanavanua, Alex Coles; Josh Kemeny, Henry Pollock, Juarno Augustus.
Replacements: Henry Walker, Tom West, Elliot Millar-Mills, Tom Lockett, Chunya Munga, Angus Scott-Young, Tom James, Tom Seabrook.
