The URC semi-final will tell a tale but whereas Leinster have seemingly lost their mojo since that Champions Cup semi-final defeat to Northampton five weeks ago, Glasgow will arrive at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday (kick-off 2.45pm) believing they have rediscovered theirs.
This is largely predicated on one match, but there is substance as well as muscle memory to substantiate the Warriors’ belief that they are well placed to retain their title, not least as they are plotting a similar path to glory to the one they took last season.
Glasgow finished both that campaign and this one in fourth place in the regular-season table after 18 rounds, albeit last season they actually had a better record, with more wins and tries and fewer points conceded.
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They had stumbled toward the knock-out stages too, losing 40-34 and 44-21 away to the Bulls and Lions before beating Zebre 38-26 at home. This season, they finished with three successive defeats at home to the Bulls (19-26) and away to Benetton (7-33) and Leinster (5-13).
A year ago, though, they used a 27-10 win against inaugural champions the Stormers as a springboard to beating Munster (17-10) in the semi-finals at Thomond Park. They then beat the Bulls (21-16) in the final at Loftus Versfeld, where Leinster had lost 25-20 a week previously.
A week ago, they turned the clock back with a fine win over the Stormers in the quarter-finals at Scotstoun. It was even more convincing than the scoreline of 36-18 suggests and came against a side that had arrived on the back of four successive bonus-point wins. Ever honest, the Stormers coach John Dobson admitted his team were physically bullied in the collisions.
Glasgow head coach Franco Smith spoke afterwards of the hard work that he and his team had devoted to rebuilding confidence that had been damaged by the 52-0 Champions Cup quarter-final loss to Leinster at the Aviva Stadium eight weeks ago and, save for that laboured win over Zebre, the ensuing three-game loss.
Smith made eight changes from the side that had rolled up their sleeves in losing 13-5 to Leinster three weeks ago in the final round of regular-season matches, and the team that rocks up for this semi-final will be altogether different.
In recent games, Glasgow have welcomed back Sione Tuipulotu, whose performance rose another level following his return against Leinster, with strong carries, inventive passing and a perfectly weighted grubber for one of their five tries against the Stormers.
Another of their Lions, lock Scott Cummings, has also returned, as has New Zealand fullback Josh McKay and influential South African number eight Henco Venter after a six-week suspension. As Smith noted, Venter played like a man with a desire to repay a debt to his team.
Switching Tom Jordan back from centre to fullback has also given their backline more attacking shape, albeit Huw Jones missed the semi-final due to the Achilles tendon issues that have plagued him since the Six Nations.
Smith has said the injury requires careful management and will not prevent Jones from touring with the Lions, but it seems doubtful he will be risked in this semi-final. Still, Stafford McDowell is no mug and brings a physicality to their work on both sides of the ball.
Indeed, as significant as their attacking prowess against the Stormers was, their defensive work was also impressive, notably a key goal-line stand in the end game of the first half. The Stormers’ attacking threats, which had helped them average six tries per game, were restricted to just two tries – one of which was from a freakish breaking ball from an up-and-under.
Much of the credit for this goes to defensive coach Pete Murchie, who is heading to Japan after this season, so further adding to the “last dance” feel to Glasgow’s defence of their title.
Early last week, Glasgow announced that eight players would be leaving at the end of the season. Argentinian winger Sebastian Cancelliere is expected to return to his former club Hindu, Jordan has signed for Bristol Bears, Jack Mann is joining Gloucester and Venter is joining Brive. In addition, lock JP du Preez, scrumhalf Sean Kennedy and wings Facundo Cordero and Logan Totter will be moving on.
After last week’s quarter-final, Smith seemed visibly upset at the prospect of their departure and spoke of the huge holes and huge legacies they will leave.
No doubt their Scotstoun farewell added emotional energy to the Warriors’ performance against the Stormers but they’ll carry that and their rediscovered mojo into their semi-final against Leinster.
While Zander Fagerson is unlikely to have recovered in time from a calf injury, Smith is more optimistic about Rory Sutherland and Fin Richardson. Jack Dempsey, who has not played since the Six Nations, is another player Glasgow are waiting on.
Smith believes his team is in better condition for this game than they were for their Champions Cup meeting with Leinster.
“We saw a lot of grit against Leinster the last time [in the 13-5 match],” said the coach. “And you must put those games against them in perspective. The first one was in the middle of the season and we had a lot of injuries, Zander [Fagerson] and so many others at that stage.
“The expectation that day was massive, they hadn’t played their top team since the Six Nations. Everything worked for them and nothing went our way that day. If that happens with Leinster they can put international teams away playing like that. That’s what we took from that. The next time we were less wary of the challenge and that will hopefully help us going back there.”
