The Black Ferns’ attack is in good shape. It might even be ever so slightly terrifying from an Irish perspective in advance of Sunday’s Pool C decider.
So far in this World Cup, New Zealand have scored 18 tries and 116 points in just two games. For reference, against the same pair of opponents – Japan and Spain – Ireland have found the line 13 times, to the tune of 85 points.
Granted, this is not a perfect comparison. Ireland do have a history of slowing the Black Ferns down enough to overtake them, with last year’s famous WXV win in Canada still fresh in the memory.
The Kiwis would argue they weren’t at full strength that day. Ireland caught them on the hop – a good performance against a higher-ranked opponent not at their best.
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This time around, the Black Ferns could well be trending in the right direction. What has changed between now and that infamous defeat to Ireland? Statistically speaking, is there anything to suggest that Scott Bemand’s side can repeat the dose?
Jorja Miller
One of those missing players in Vancouver was Jorja Miller. Well, not missing, as such, as she hadn’t debuted yet. New Zealand’s Sevens star only recently made the move across to 15s. To say she has flourished would be an understatement.
It’s always interesting to see where Sevens stars end up positionally once they come across. Ilona Maher has moved between centre and wing for the USA. Ireland’s more high-profile Sevens players – Amee-Leigh Costigan, Stacey Flood, Eve Higgins et al – have also ended up in the back five.
The Black Ferns have instead put Miller into the backrow. With devastating effect. Her World Cup performances over the last fortnight certainly deserve boring caveats focusing on the standard of opposition and the small sample size. Regardless, Miller has posted impressive numbers.
According to Opta, she’s made 182 metres with ball in hand across the two matches. Add to that 17 defenders beaten, seven line breaks, four tries and an assist. She’s done all this from just 18 carries in two games. Well, 1½ games – she was subbed at half-time against Spain.
As well as the flashy attack, Miller has hit 23 attacking rucks – top seven for New Zealand – with a success rate of 96 per cent. She is her team’s top tackler with 18 and has the best rate for slowing opposition ball (among players with double-digit defensive ruck arrivals) – 36 per cent.
We often hear about Sevens developing pure all-round athletes. Miller appears to be just that.
Pace is pace
From one new Kiwi weapon to another. The 18-year-old Braxton Sorensen-McGee also didn’t play against Ireland last year, only making her Black Ferns debut in May. She scored a double against Australia on that first outing and has not looked back.
She’s lined out both on the wing and at fullback so far in this World Cup. It doesn’t appear to matter where New Zealand put her. Sorensen-McGee leads all Kiwi players for metres made, hardly a shock for a back-three player, but her figure of 225 metres is still a lot. Third in the whole tournament, to be precise.
She trails only Miller in tries scored (three) and line breaks (six) by New Zealand players. She’s beaten eight defenders on 16 carries. She is an elusive runner.
It’s not just the shiny new wing doing the damage. New Zealand’s back-three stocks as a whole look very dangerous. Portia Woodman-Wickliffe – the country’s newly minted record try scorer – has 192 metres and 16 defenders beaten.
Wing Ayesha Leti-I’iga beat five defenders and scored two tries in her 64 minutes on the pitch this tournament. Fellow wide threat Katelyn Vaha’akolo made 99 metres in her 80-minute run. New Zealand have wide threats aplenty and they will look to use them.
Ireland’s wide defence
Interestingly, after Ireland’s win over Spain, head coach Bemand offered an analysis of his team’s defence: “Whenever they [Spain] got an entry, they resorted to a narrow pick-and-go game. And look, we actually look defensively comfortable in terms of a width perspective. It’s just very hard to stop the close game.”
Is he right to say Ireland are okay defending out wide?
Statistically speaking, there is evidence to back Bemand up. Not just from the Spain game, but also Ireland’s win over Japan.
In terms of both metres made and line breaks, Japan’s top performer was a forward – Masami Kawamura – not a back. Japan’s back three carried for 127 metres. This compared to the Irish figure of 263. Wing Béibhinn Parsons had two dominant tackles against Japan, a sign that she was adept at rushing out of the line and shutting down runners in her wide channel.
Against Spain, the story was slightly different in that fullback Amàlia Argudo was their most dangerous carrier in terms of yardage. Yet scrumhalf Anne Fernández de Corres beat the most defenders, a sign that lots of Spanish joy came close to the ruck.
Of course, if Bemand himself is pointing to Ireland’s weakness against the pick-and-go game, then you look at the Kiwi pack as a threat. Enter Miller and co. The threats are all over the park.
Saving grace?
The good news – from an Irish perspective – is that even if Ireland can’t keep up their trend of shutting down wide threats, they have recent history of still winning games against New Zealand.
In that famous Vancouver win, New Zealand made 14 line breaks to Ireland’s two. They beat 29 Irish defenders, the opposite number reading 16. They made 344 post-contact metres to Ireland’s 174. Most of those numbers came from outside backs.
As those who find stats cumbersome would happily say at this point, underlying attacking figures aren’t what win matches. Where you do the damage is vital. Ireland won the territorial battle on the day (52 per cent vs 48). They kicked plenty: once for every five passes made compared to once every 16 passes for New Zealand.
Attacking numbers inside the 22 back up the notion that the Black Ferns did their most eye-catching work away from the Irish line. From their 11 trips to the 22, New Zealand scored 1.9 points per entry. Ireland, by way of contrast, scored 3.6 points for each of their eight entries.
That New Zealand turned the ball over 15 times suggests a certain narrative. For all their attacking prowess, there is a recent history of profligacy when playing Ireland. That could well be a comfort for relatively new defence coach James Scaysbrook should New Zealand once again find holes in this Irish line.
