Fortune favours the away team as Covid keeps home crowds away

In a rugby season in which the coronavirus pandemic has guaranteed sterile match environments in the absence of spectators, it might not come as a surprise to learn that fortune has favoured the away side in terms of the three leading competitions in the northern hemisphere from an Irish perspective.

Examining the recently completed Guinness Pro14 tournament, won by Leinster, the Six Nations Championship, in which Wales topped the table, and the results to date in the abbreviated Heineken Champions Cup format ahead of this weekend’s matches, there is common ground across the three tournaments in question in that, cumulatively, results wise the away teams are more successful.

In the 2021 Six Nations there were eight away wins in 15 matches – three for teams playing in Italy (the last time they triumphed in a match of any description in the competition was in 2015) while Scotland won away to England and France, Wales beat Scotland, Ireland edged out Gregor Townsend’s team and France squeezed past Ireland at the Aviva stadium; this provided a 53 per cent success rate for the away team.

Perhaps surprisingly, it is just a marginal increase on the 2019 Six Nations when stadiums were full of spectators and the visiting team prevailed on seven occasions (47 per cent). Italy were again beaten at home three times, Wales beat France and Scotland, England won in Dublin and Ireland in Edinburgh.

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Using the same fixtures as a template, you’d have to go back to 2017 to note an appreciable drop, the visiting sides winning just four games in 15, or 27 per cent. The Italians lost their three matches in Rome while England won in Cardiff.

Dead rubber

There were 16 rounds of games in the Pro14 league stage proper this season, encompassing 95 that were decided on the pitch – Edinburgh were awarded the match points for their dead rubber against Benetton – with the away team victorious on 49 occasions, or 52 per cent of the time.

By way of comparison and utilising a season (2018-2019) that wasn’t disrupted by Covid-19, the winning percentage for away teams drops from 52 per cent to a smidge over 29 per cent. In 21 rounds of matches in the league stage of the competition – seven games per weekend with the Cheetahs and South Kings taking part in the tournament – there were 43 wins on the road.

The format for the current Champions Cup had to be changed mid-tournament. Two rounds of pool matches were abandoned, and of the two that were played, only 20 of 24 matches could be completed on the pitch. In the other four matches 28-0 victories were awarded to teams who didn’t succumb to Covid-19 issues.

There were 11 away wins (55 per cent) and this compares to a figure of 29 per cent (21 victories) across the six rounds of pool matches in the 2019-2020 tournament, which were completed pre-lockdown. The cumulative total across the three aforementioned competitions this season reveals a 52 per cent win rate for the away sides.

It’s a timely reminder to the two Irish provinces in the Champions Cup ahead of this weekend’s action that home advantage is a considerably less positive factor than previous seasons.

Four attempts

Leinster host Toulon, a club they have never beaten in Europe in four attempts, at the RDS on Friday night, while Munster welcome Toulouse to Thomond Park on Saturday. Toulon, though, have won just three of 10 matches on the road in the French Top 14, while the reigning champions, Toulouse, have an altogether more impressive seven wins on their travails to date.

Toulon are likely to field a huge pack that could include three from Springboks World Cup winner Eben Etzebeth, French international locks Romain Taofifénua and Swan Rebbadj and the 27-year-old New Zealand-born former Samoa U-20 international Brian Alainu’uese in the back five in the pack.

It’s not as if they’re short of backrow quality either, with French captain Charles Ollivon, Argentina’s Facundo Isa, former French international Raphaël Lakafia and the now 37-year-old Sergio Parisse available for selection. They will be without the injured French wing Gabin Villière. Toulouse have a serious injury issue at centre for their trip to Thomond Park.

In the European Challenge Cup, Connacht travel to Welford Road where they will face a Leicester Tigers team that has won six of eight matches at home in the English Premiership, while Ulster head for London and a clash with Harlequins, currently fourth in the table, that have won their last four games at The Stoop having lost two and drawn one of the first three at the venue.