Gerry Thornley: Why Ireland fans should put their faith in Wales

Back in the days of simultaneous kick-offs, and particularly if Ireland were slumping to another defeat, one of the time-honoured customs at Lansdowne Road in the old Five Nations was if the PA announcer revealed that, in the day’s other game, England were losing. Cue consoling cheers all round.

Presumably it was the same in Cardiff, Edinburgh or Paris. As one Welshman put it for countless thousands when asked who he supported: “Wales,” he said. “And whoever is playing England.”

With the arrival of staggered kick-offs, when club bars and pubs around the country were full to the rafters and an English game was on the big screens, invariably everybody rooted for whoever was playing England.

Watching from a crammed vantage point in the DLSP clubhouse in Kiltiernan as Scott Gibbs slalomed over the English try-line at Wembley in 1999 for Wales to deny England a Grand Slam with that dramatic 32-31 win, the cheering wouldn't have been much louder had it heralded an Irish win.

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Many Irish eyes will be on the match of the Guinness 2019 Six Nations so far on Saturday even if, alas, Ireland will not be involved. The 4.45pm kick-off is prime time viewing when the Principality Stadium hosts a potential Grand Slam decider between the only two unbeaten countries after two rounds, with the outcome to have a bearing on Irish moods come the kick-off (4pm local time/3pm Irish) against Italy in Rome on Sunday.

Time-honoured habits will remain intact, and in addition to 800 years of oppression and all that, this time for very tangible reasons. For if England beat Wales, Ireland will kick-off against Italy trailing Eddie Jones’ team by 10 or 11 points. The Six Nations will be as good as over, and most probably for Wales and Scotland as well.

True, the Scots could beat the hapless French in Paris on Saturday in the weekend’s first game, and then Wales at home before visiting Twickenham on the last day. But given England finish with home games against Italy, against whom they have never lost and hardly will do so any time soon, and Scotland, who last won in Twickenham in 1983, an English win on Saturday in Cardiff would as good as decide the title. Another victory against Italy would assuredly do so.

By contrast, a Welsh win could open up the possibility of Ireland moving to within three points of them in a three or four-way fight for the title – however fanciful that might be – going into the penultimate round.

England go into Saturday’s game as 8/15 favourites and with good reason. They have won the last five Six Nations meetings against Wales, including two wins at the Principality Stadium.

Jones is thus entitled to say the Welsh home ground does not represent a fortress to him, although amid all the mischievous tossing of grenades between him and Warren Gatland this week, one wonders what the Australian can achieve by this comment other than agitate the Welsh supporters.

More speculation     

In beating Ireland 33-20 at the Aviva Stadium and France 44-8 at Twickenham, a rejuvenated England have achieved a base level of performance far in advance of Wales. By contrast, in treating their treks to Paris and Rome (when making ten changes) as World Cup preparation, Gatland has sacrificed some cohesion.

Hence there's far more speculation over the Welsh selection. Take the half-backs. Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe started against France, before Aled Davies and Dan Biggar were chosen against Italy, with Gareth Davies on the bench in both games.

If any team can manufacture a one-off mugging, Wales look likeliest to do so

Many Welsh pundits believe Anscombe can bring more to Wales’ game than Biggar, but Biggar is an altogether more experienced player, as is Gareth Davies, and that combination would bring the kind of ferocious competitiveness that Wales will require, as was the case when they orchestrated that opportunistic comeback win in the pool stages of the 2015 World Cup at Twickenham.

The most immediate target for Wales will be to end England’s run of scoring within the first three minutes of their past five Tests. Simply by the law of averages, they’ll hardly make it six Tests in a row, will they?

The other most pressing requirement for Wales is to match England for physicality across the gain line, witness England’s tally of 46 dominant tackles to Ireland’s six at the Aviva Stadium.

Much of what England have achieved has been predicated on them repeatedly stopping Irish and French ball-carriers behind the gain line, while also generating rapid-fire breakdown ball on the front foot for Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell, albeit Mako Vunipola's workload will be absent.

The English halves and their array of left-footers outside them, Henry Slade, Elliot Daly and Jonny May, have thus been able to kick on their terms, and often after pulling the opposition back three out of position over several phases.

They have scored six of their ten tries directly from kicks in behind, and effectively seven when one counts Slade's try off one recycle against France, but all of this would not have been possible without physical supremacy across the gain line. Furthermore, in Liam Williams they will be coming up against a specialist fullback for the first time in three games, and the in-goal area in the Principality Stadium is not as deep as is the case at the Aviva Stadium (marginally) and Twickenham.

Shaun Edwards, and Gatland, have long held the view that defences win championships and, although they have shown far less in attack than England, their well-honed defence has been the bedrock for this team's record-equalling Welsh run of 11 straight wins.

If any team can manufacture a one-off mugging, Wales look likeliest to do so and the vast majority of Irish fans will assuredly be hoping they do. Aside from being in Ireland’s interest, the Welsh are, of course, our fellow Celts and Pro14 competitors.

And, well, they are playing England.

gthornley@irishtimes.com