England likely to prove too strong for injury-ravaged Wales

This is it then, the centrepiece of the second weekend; a heavyweight collision between two long-standing, cross-border rivals, and it is liable to be a Demolition Derby alright.

When Sam Burgess, all 116kg of him, takes his first charge at the 110kg Jamie Roberts – or indeed vice versa – the Twickenham earth will shake.

How on earth did our new Irish Times columnist, Gordon D’Aracy and his even longer-standing sidekick, survive so long amid all these midfield behemoths? With wondrous footwork, of course, along with bravery and much else. But one fancies there won’t be too much dancing feet this evening.

It will be direct, straight, and uber-physical. In the face of WarrenBall, the term applied to a Welsh game that revolves around Roberts getting them over the gain line and then playing from there, England have manned the barricades with about the most physical, bruising 10-12-13 combination they could muster in Owen Farrell, Sam Burgess and Brad Barritt.

With Ford on the bench, Jonathan Joseph temporarily sidelined and Henry Slade not trusted, there's scarcely a shred of creativity in that axis. One imagines Anthony Watson and Johnny May won't be receiving too many passes.

Four caps

It also seems remarkable that having finally settled on a midfield combination of Barritt and Joseph (the 13th under Stuart Lancaster's reign) only in the World Cup warm-ups, England are now turning to a 14th permutation, with Burgess making only his second Test start out of four caps and Barritt, the defensive linchpin, shifting to outside centre.

So Ford's short Test career has come full circle. He made his debut against Wales as a replacement for Farrell in March 2014, in a 29-18 win at Twickenham. However, he wasn't given his first start until November that year in the win over Samoa, and he only became England's first choice '10' in an outstanding Six Nations campaign when Farrell was sidelined with a knee injury, kicking off with a Man of the Match performance in England's excellent win in Cardiff. They should have tried him sooner, and so despite starting ten of England's last 11 matches, the 22-year-old came into this tournament with only 13 caps to his name.

The crunch

Lancaster, Andy Farrell and Mike Catt had seemed to finally settle on Ford, yet when it came to le crunch, it somehow doesn’t surprise that they opted for Farrell. He is older, physically stronger and has a huge competitive desire and very solid kicking game out of hand and off the ‘tee’, but with nothing like Ford’s running, passing and offloading spark.

Interestingly, England average just over two tries a game with Farrell at ‘10’, and three per game with Ford.

The latter has suffered for an unconvincing performance away to France in their penultimate warm-up game and England’s sometimes misguided first hour against Fiji – when he was handicapped by the lack of hard yards being gained by the pack.

Conceivably, of course, Ford’s game could be useful in a looser endgame, particularly if England have to play catch-up, but how much has he been damaged by this apparent lack of trust when it most mattered? Perhaps not. He seems like a cool, composed young lad.

Warren Gatland, by contrast, has the more unsettled side due to their cruel injury list, easily the most disruptive of any side in the tournament.

Gatland has long since felt that if Wales enjoy the rub of the green they would beat England. But that was before they lost (in addition to the hors de combat Jonathan Davies), Leigh Halfpenny, Rhys Webb and now, Paul James.

Adding to the patchwork look of this Welsh selection, Alun Wyn Jones has been sidelined for four weeks, and Liam Williams has played 35 minutes since last season, while reserve props Aaron Jarvis and Sampson Lee (who has played 40 minutes since March, against Uruguay last Sunday) have both had injury concerns this week. Wing Hallam Amos, scrum-half Gareth Davies and tight-head Tomas Francis have six Test starts between them, and not one has played at Twickenham.

The bench

Wales have managed a degree of freshness in asking only six players to start back-to-back games inside seven days, and no less than England, they do have impact on the bench. But if he and Wales were to beat the holders in their own lair it really would be one of his and their finest achievements.

Locked and fully loaded, Wales would have had every chance. But with their diminished resources and patchwork selection, you also have to work in Jerome Garces and the Twickenham factor.

It just seems like the cards have been stacked a little too heavily against the Red Dragonhood.

ENGLAND: M Brown; A Watson, B Barritt, S Burgess, J May; O Farrell, B Youngs; J Marler, T Youngs, D Cole, G Parling, C Lawes, T Wood, C Robshaw (capt), B Vunipola. Replacements: R Webber, M Vunipola, K Brookes, J Launchbury, J Haskell, R Wigglesworth, G Forde, A Goode.

WALES: L Williams; G North, S Williams, J Roberts, H Amos; D Biggar, G Davies; G Jenkins, S Baldwin, T Francis, B Davies, A-W Jones, D Lydiate, S Warburton (capt), T Faletau. Replacements: K Owens, A Jarvis, S Lee, L Charteris, J Tipuric, L Williams, R Priestland, A Cuthbert.

Referee: Jerome Garces (France).

Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/4 England, 20/1 draw, 11/4 Wales. Handicap odds (Wales +9pts) 10/11 England, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Wales.

Forecast: England to win.