Liam Toland: Despite apparent French vulnerability this is 50-50

How far back do I go in my homework for France in Cardiff? Their performances in the last Six Nations where they won two and lost three? Or should I settle on the last three weeks? Well I go back to Friday September 21st, 2007 and feeling confident strolling towards Stade de France.

We lost 25-3 where I recall a forlorn Denis Leamy on the final whistle jogging across the pitch to collect his head gear. Although I sense French vulnerability, this experience has taught me that Cardiff remains a 50:50 game.

If Ireland have been holding back these past few weeks, what have France been doing? To find out I'll be watching their 1, 5, 8, 9 and 13 with their number 10 requiring extra attention. Check out Frederic Michalak's reaction to the Italian try; swinging his hands in the air at his team-mates; petulance? Then check out his team's reaction to him after the deftest of kicks through for Rabah Slimani's try; no reaction. Should the brilliant Morgan Parra be resigned to the bench then I'll be watching number 21.

Why may France lose? When they make a line break they struggle off the subsequent breakdown. Michalak appears an awkward distributor of very quick ball and with Mathieu Bastareaud in midfield the French often pass behind the shoulder when hunting width especially off their left hand. Considering their coaches' past playing history this lack of ruthlessness post breaking the line is extraordinary. It will give Ireland a chance to fold back into the defensive line, slowing the French recycle to five seconds would be a massive help.

Giant holes

The French love bludgeoning giant holes in the opposition with an immediate plan to exploit through simple rewinds or further bludgeoning. In fact they are at their best when ignoring width in favour of five-metre channels flowing down through the broken line. Take their lineout options where France often stand number eight

Louis Picamoles

in the scrumhalf slot. They will hit the middle of the lineout with Picamoles stepping in to engage. Most defensive lineouts will expect a maul and will act accordingly committing the tail gunners to the maul. And yes the French will at times maul but watch out for two big options. Picamoles will engage for the briefest of moments but only to head laterally infield around the tail.

Although in the 13 jersey Bastareaud will come charging down the 10 channel from the softest of Picamoles passes. Other times their 9 will provide the same function as Picamoles but will have 13, 8, 14/11 all hitting the 10 channel and all expecting the ball. Defending this shouldn’t be Johnny Sexton. Should the French 8 or 14/11 receive there’ll be another powerful fatty taking around the corner. All the while Michalak will loiter out of contact for a rewind into wide open channels. Australia did similar against England. The good news; France have struggled due to their behind the shoulder passing.

Defensively, although he wears 13, Bastareaud defends at 12 off scrum and lineout partly to make a heavy hit but also to gain the steal where his work over the tackle is awesome. With his hips hinging his monster upper body rotates with his belly resting on his thighs thereby limiting his need to support his body illegally on the deck. This is good news for France as referees have been very strong on this.

Likewise his loosehead prop Eddy Ben Arous has been brilliant with wide feet and low centre of gravity over the ball. Bastareaud also hunts well inside his outside centre where the wide tackle may be made. He will arrive and double team the Irish carrier while also effecting a steal.

Mike Ross will earn his match fee on Sunday as Arous et al and their bench will fancy a horror scrummaging show; over to you Nigel Owens! A very low penalty count is crucial especially with French fullback Scott Spedding's monster right boot making 55-metre plus field goals. So will Ireland ignore the strike and elect for an eight man shove on their own ball; will Owens tolerate a crooked feed?

As for Ireland; I have concerns which a massive spike in intensity will mitigate but although France believe our lineout is key the subsequent Irish maul must improve on its last three outings to slow the clock and the tempo while gaining a valuable mental upper hand not to mention tries.

Although French physique is huge they are vulnerable to a well-constructed maul over their high body positions.

Aerial battle

Our creative use of the broken field ball is also of concern. Italy made 10 offloads to our five whilst making 146 tackles to our 90. Thus Italy had to work so much harder but still got twice the number of offloads.

Will we persist in an aerial battle expecting similar returns from the recent games? France will be waiting. This does raise what point of contact will Ireland employ allied to our superb fitness levels where we don’t need to engage in contact as the French monsters will loiter at subsequent breakdowns. How will Sean O’Brien be employed? Jamie Heaslip is no Picamoles and the Irish number eight’s role has changed over the seasons to accommodate O’Brien. Should we need O’Brien’s targets wider then our starting backrow will need to rebalance mid-match with Chris Henry protecting the deck to free up O’Brien. Ireland Abu.

liamtoland@yahoo.com