Liam Toland: Potent Australia will ask a lot of different questions

Australia have the same backline and make two changes to their pack from the team that beat Scotland; ignore the French selection.

There’s no sign of 140kg behemoth Will Skelton and clearly, with 6ft10in Rory Arnold included whilst reverting to the classic 5 v 3 split on the bench, Michael Cheika’s looking for pace on the ground and in the air to keep up with the Irish.

Speaking of pace, I had hoped for a Joey Carbery promotion but we’ll have to wait a wee while for his entrance as Paddy Jackson gets the nod.

Either way Michael Cheika’s selection is a nod of respect to Ireland’s current form.

The Australians have always fascinated me in their ability to think their solutions in real time. When they spot opposition weakness there’s no better team to exploit to the nth degree.

Equally they fix their own weaknesses on the hoof making them extremely tough opposition, especially for teams who rely on pre-planned analysis developed from computers. So Ireland need to have several plans ready and to alternate them constantly.

Several Australian patterns have remained since the RWC such as their kick -off routine. Bernard Foley stands over the ball on the halfway line as his team line up on their 10 metre line; timing their arrival over the halfway line as Foley releases, hence they are all at full speed as they cross the halfway.

This method will get big gold jerseys into green ones early on but it especially gets Michael Hooper and David Pocock arriving a few seconds later to hit on the ball receiver. These two continue to provide threats over the ruck.

Pocock is especially good at riding the waves of opposition clear-outs; partly because of his perfect poaching body physique but especially because of his reading of the evolving tackle and breakdown. Watch him as he watches Irish carriers enter contact and watch his feet placement as he prepares. In fact he has the best preparation for the steal in world rugby.

The solution?

There are many; offloading before deck or the Irish trail runner must block his entry as often as possible. That all said, our backrow are in phenomenal form on the deck but are far more dynamic off the deck than the Wallabies; advantage Ireland.

Huge departure

As for patterns, I’ve noticed that the Irish scrumhalf against New Zealand and Canada drifts out to the far wing off phase defence and consequently can be miles from the Australian breakdown. This is a huge departure from our previous defensive system where the ‘9’ would be in the neutral position behind the ruck or if time was at a premium would fill in the pillar defence in the absence of a heavy.

With Wallabies intent on targeting the Irish by pick and go through the heart of their ruck we will need a very vigilant defender behind the Irish ruck to control and fill gaps and nullify the Wallaby offloading game on their half break.

However a big difference between Ireland’s attack and Australia is the Wallabies, when close to the opposition, line target the available space wherever it exists laterally; typically outside the last forward defender. This is in contrast to Ireland becoming narrower as the white line appears.

So expect the likes of props Sekope Kepu and Scott Sio to get outside the last heavy Irish defender as outside backs run hard lines in support for the around the back offload. In essence, the closer to the line the less likely to take heavy contact on the defence terms. Failing this the Wallabies will run a screen of Kepu etc and hit out the back for their fullback Israel Folau as second receiver; in fact he pops up as second receiver constantly; have mercy!

So how good are Australia? Well they are vulnerable. For instance the Australian defence is organised but nowhere as violent or space-starving as the All Blacks last Saturday; neither is their counter rucking. And when Stephen Moore is receiving he will often look to pivot and release a trail runner behind. At times he is slow in this process and can be hit; man and ball.

Extremely formidable

I'm not convinced by left winger Henry Speight; under the high ball or when carrying in traffic. Beauden Barrett was New Zealand's maestro and though the Wallaby half backs are extremely formidable, it is in fullback Folau that Australia have a beauty. That said, his positioning off a halfway Irish lineout can be suspect which places huge emphasis on Jackson's accuracy out of hand. Should Australia send up a flat defence then there's green grass available to chip over to while Folau may be elsewhere.

But Folau gets lots of touches in ‘strange’ field positions and Foley will elect for the Johnny Sexton loop-around making Ireland’s wide channel defensive reads massively important especially with the confidence in offloading.

How Jackson and Garry Ringrose support Jared Payne in all this will be crucial.

So can Ireland get back to their All Black intensity? If so they will win; if not, well then . . .

Finally space prevents me from reflecting on last Saturday’s referee interpretations in depth but I’m especially vexed on 22:36 as Conor Murray rolled the ball into the Irish scrum.

Soon afterwards Kieran Read detached and hammered Jamie Heaslip as Ireland were powering over the All Black try line; penalty try and yellow card Read. I’ll explain why next Friday.

liamtoland@yahoo.com