Rejuvenated Ireland should get the job done against Scotland

Six Nations: Ireland v Scotland. Kick-off: 4.45pm. Venue: Aviva Stadium. On TV: Live on Virgin Media One and ITV

Japanese television has secured the rights to the 2020 Six Nations, and there was a contingent of journalists from the Land of the Rising Sun at the eve-of-match press conferences for Ireland and Scotland on Friday.

Both countries had made the perfect tourists in Japan, arriving in strength and partying hard despite the results which included defeats to the host which set the tournament alight.

Time moves on quickly in Test rugby, and while the onset of another international rugby tournament may seem a tad hasty, in some respects this Six Nations probably could not come quick enough for these two teams or, indeed, the sponsors.

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Throw in a dry January – well, for some – those long overdue monthly pay cheques, and we have a well-timed kick-off. And on a weekend when three Eurofiles play their three exiting rivals (albeit Scotland are reluctant Brexiteers).Yes, indeed, it’s time for a welcome antidote.

In contrast to the hangover from the 2015 World Cup which lingered with both the provinces and the national side for the rest of that season, this Irish squad seems comparatively re-energised.

A reshaped coaching ticket under a newly-promoted head coach, a new state-of-the-art training facility, a new captain and some new faces will have that impact.

Throw in the form of the provinces and this amalgam of players looks very much a form selection.

Alas and alack, amid all the clear signals that Ireland are also seeking evolution, if not revolution, in their attacking game, Met Éireann is forecasting “strong and gusty westerly winds”.

This is bound to affect the game as a spectacle and reward the aerial game, never mind make for a bad kilt day. Much like the election, therefore, revolution may have to wait.

Template

Yet despite Ireland’s anti-climactic World Cup, the opening pool win over Scotland by 27-3 in the heat and humidity of Yokohama before the rain of the second-half may provide something of a template.

The pillars of that demolition were the setpieces, trademark recycling and aggressive line speed in defence to prevent Finn Russell and his chums from outflanking the Irish defence as they had often done previously.

Fittingly the three tries in the first 19 minutes were finished off by tight-five forwards James Ryan, Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong.

All bar two of that starting XV in Japan line up for the kick-off in Dublin as Rob Herring makes his first Six Nations start and 21-year-old Caelan Doris makes his Test debut, with Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway and Bundee Aki all restored compared to the team which faced the All Blacks.

Doris really does look special – a strong-carrying, footballing No 8 who will add passing and offloading to the mix. The majority of the crowd will be willing him on. The more positive involvements Doris has, the more he will energise the home team and supporters alike.

The Scots, of course, will be looking for the same from their debutant No 8 Nick Haining.

There will be a second Irish debutant in 21-year-old Leinster hooker Ronan Kelleher, who also looks like a Test match animal in the making, and it's doubtful if Ireland have ever had more ball-carrying front-row oomph off the bench.  Alongside them are Devin Toner and Peter O'Mahony, Ireland's primary lineout weapons for yonks. Without them initially though, and with two hookers who were not at the World Cup, it will be some achievement for this Irish pack to engineer another 100 per cent setpiece return.

Thriller

As ever under the canny Gregor Townsend, but perhaps more so than usual, the Scots could be anything.They have changed 10 of the side which lost to Ireland and Japan, when they died with their boots on in a thriller.

Only the tackling machine Jonny Gray and the poaching Hamish Watson remain up front, and, partly enforced through the retirement of Greig Laidlaw and the suspension of Russell, there is also a "new" half-back partnership in the Glasgow pair of Ali Price and Adam Hastings.

Were his absence to continue the tournament would be the poorer without Russell’s wizardry. Think of “that pass” against England two years ago, like a meteor from outer space, or that left-footed nutmeg and finish against Munster, or a host of others.

Then again, Scotland have had two weeks to adjust without him, and the absence of such a slightly maverick talent could well unify this Scottish team.

Andy Farrell claims Hastings has "a similar box of tricks", and Johnny Sexton described the change opposite him as "like for like". But physically Hastings is liable to be tested by Ireland's array of big carriers.

Above all, after their defeats by Ireland and Japan the Scots will be madly targeting a big start.

Indeed, with so much pent-up frustration to be released after almost four months in both sides, the first quarter is liable to be fast and furious.

Home games

Home advantage is always a factor in this tournament. Ireland have won 10 of their last 11 home games against Scotland, including five since returning to the Aviva Stadium since Scotland ended Ireland’s tenancy in Croke Park with a 23-20 win in 2010.

This may not be another front-running Ireland victory. Scotland may need wearing down. But with that strong array of carriers to start and finish the game, Ireland should get there in the end.

IRELAND: Jordan Larmour (Leinster); Andrew Conway (Munster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster); Johnny Sexton (Leinster, capt), Conor Murray (Munster); Cian Healy (Leinster), Rob Herring (Ulster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), James Ryan (Leinster), CJ Stander (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster).  Replacements: Ronan Kelleher (Leinster), David Kilcoyne (Munster), Andrew Porter (Leinster), Devin Toner (Leinster), Peter O'Mahony (Munster), John Cooney (Ulster), Ross Byrne (Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster).

SCOTLAND: Stuart Hogg (Exeter, capt); Sean Maitland (Saracens), Huw Jones (Glasgow), Sam Johnson (Glasgow), Blair Kinghorn (Edinburgh), Adam Hastings (Glasgow), Ali Price (Glasgow); Rory Sutherland (Edinburgh), Fraser Brown (Glasgow), Zander Fagerson (Glasgow), Scott Cummings (Glasgow), Jonny Gray (Glasgow), James Ritchie (Edinburgh), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), Nick Haining (Edinburgh).  Replacements: Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Allan Dell (London Irish), Simon Berghan (Edinburgh), Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), Cornell du Preez (Worcester), George Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Rory Hutchinson (Northampton), Chris Harris (Gloucester).

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France).

Overall head-to-head: Played 135, Ireland 64 wins, Scotland 66 wins, five Draws.

Last five meetings: (2019) Ireland won 27 Scotland 3 (Yokohama). Scotland 13 Ireland 22 (Murrayfield). (2018) Ireland 28 Scotland 8 (Aviva Stadium). (2017) Scotland 27 Ireland 22 (Murrayfield). (2016) Ireland 35 Scotland 25 (Aviva Stadium).

Betting (Paddy Power): 1/10 Ireland, 30/1 Draw, 9/1 Scotland. Handicap odds (Scotland +14pts) Evens Ireland, 16/1 Draw, Evens Scotland.

Forecast: Ireland to win.