Rugby Stats: Expect more tactical kicking from All Blacks against Ireland

To kick or not to kick, that is the question. In the two most recent matches, New Zealand have adopted an appreciably diverse philosophy in relation to the kicking game.

In the 40-29 defeat against Ireland in Chicago, the All Blacks kicked from hand on just 13 occasions, whereas against Italy in the Stadio Olimpico last Saturday they put boot to ball on 53 occasions, 39 of which were kicked from hand by way of comparison with the Irish match.

Conspiracy theorists might suggest that despite the difference in personnel, New Zealand, were road testing attacking gambits that would not alone suffice against Italy but could also be effective when they rock up to the Aviva stadium on Saturday.

Italy’s line speed at the beginning of the match was aggressive, looking to close down space quickly and try and nullify New Zealand’s desire to flock to the space in the wide channels.

Dink

To counteract this, All Blacks’ outhalf

Aaron Cruden

opted to dink the ball over the onrushing Italian midfield or, after a couple of phases and provided with quick ruck ball, cross-kicks that landed in behind the Italian wings and a few that were contestable in the air.

A classic example of the latter was a second half try scored by New Zealand number eight Steven Luatua. A cross-kick towards the touchline was beautifully flighted; hooker Dane Coles, caught the ball and in one movement flicked it back inside to the supporting flanker, Elliott Dixon, who in turn ran 40 metres before offloading to the supporting Luatua.

There were other instances of cross-kicking to a couple of the backrow loitering close to the touchline. In the first six minutes of the match in Rome, the All Blacks kicked 10 times, nine of which were out of hand. After the first quarter of the game the kicking stats had spiralled to 21, which included three conversions and a restart.

Indeed at the very start of the match they kicked four times in the first 150 seconds. They were presenting a series of pictures to Italy, another of which was to generally clear the ball with the boot immediately when inside their 22. The Italians went long from kickoffs/restarts and the New Zealand recipient, usually under no pressure, sought territory in response.

It was only in the final throes of the game that New Zealand repeatedly ran from their 22 when in cruise control on the pitch and the scoreboard.

The All Blacks also sought to push Italy back with long diagonal kicks in behind and their aerial effectiveness from box-kicks, an area in which they were outplayed by Ireland in Chicago, was considerably better, reclaiming possession with the first two of the match.

Kicking policy

The knock-on effect of the New Zealand kicking policy was that Italy’s line speed slowed, they dropped players into the backfield to try and prevent them from getting a territorial foothold, and as soon as they did that the All Blacks switched to a passing game, to get on the outside, mixing it up nicely with outside backs cutting back against the grain or a simple inside pass to trailing runners.

Italy occasionally came up hard from outside-in in defence, but New Zealand circumvented that retort with diagonal chips or cross-kicks.

So what relevance is this to the game at the Aviva stadium on Saturday, given that the All Blacks could make in the region of 10 changes for the reprise against Ireland? New Zealand’s style of play in Chicago wasn’t generally representative of the patterns they have used during that 18-match unbeaten run that came to an end that day.

That All Blacks are rightly celebrated as the number one team in the world, one that plays a hugely entertaining brand of rugby, underpinned by wonderful handling and gorgeous lines of running. But they didn’t skimp on a kicking game in that run of success, with the obvious exception of the defeat to Ireland.

They still managed to score four tries, three of which will have disappointed Ireland in terms of the brittle nature of the defence, but the All Blacks will want to change the picture they presented in possession at Soldier Field. To do so they'll kick more often and with greater variety.

Expect dinks, grubbers, cross-kicks all designed to check Irish line speed, contestable box-kicks in search of position and possession and then long diagonal kicks or punts straight down the middle hoping to make territorial gains; all in the pursuit of moving away from the running rugby monoculture they presented in Chicago. After all they won’t want to be kicking themselves for a second time in a fortnight.