Rugby

Six Nations permutations: How Ireland can snatch the title from France

Andy Farrell’s side need a favour from England but are still in the hunt to take the crown

Ireland are still able to win their first Six Nations title since 2018 if France slip up against England. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho

Nathan Johns
Mon Mar 14 2022 - 13:22

Once again it all comes down to Super Saturday. The decision to play all three games of the final round of the Six Nations on the same day looks a good one whenever the title is still at stake, as is the case heading into this weekend. Irish fans after all can look back fondly on 2015 when, following a thumping win over Scotland in Murrayfield, an anxious wait to see how England got on at home to France was met by jubilant, title-winning scenes. It can be a nervy day, but well worth the drama.

This iteration of Super Saturday is different in that one result could render all permutations moot. With France unbeaten and heavily favoured to see off England in Paris in the late game on Saturday night (8pm kick-off), it is difficult to foresee any other result than a home win that seals both the grand slam and a first French title since 2010. Regardless, there are a number of championship permutations at play should Les Bleus slip up.

Ireland are the only other side in with a mathematical chance of taking the title. They currently sit two points in the table behind the French but have a superior points difference (84 plays 56). Ireland’s more comprehensive wins against Italy and Wales, plus the two late scores against England on Saturday have helped them greatly in this regard.

That means if France lose without a bonus point of any kind in Paris, a draw or two bonus points (four tries plus losing by seven or less) would be all Ireland need against Scotland (4.45pm kick-off) to snatch the title. Of course, an Ireland win of any kind plus a French defeat would have the same result.

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Ireland are six points ahead of both England and Scotland (both on 10 points), meaning the worst they can do in any scenario is finish second in the table. The battle for third is where things are more up in the air. Wales take on Italy in the first game on Saturday (2.15pm kick-off). If, as expected, they take home a bonus point win over the championship’s bottom dwellers, they would snatch third provided both England and Scotland lose their games without a bonus point of any kind.

A win for England would likely secure them third spot regardless of Scotland’s result due to points difference, unless the Scots match them and notch a hefty win in Dublin. As things stand, Scotland have a 19-point difference to make up (+17 to -8 in favour of England).

Of course, no matter what trio of results Saturday throws up, Italy are set for their seventh consecutive wooden spoon.