A powerful Leicester Tigers historically translated into an all conquering England. That’s not the case today. The unswept residue left by the British and Irish Lions tour of Australia has damaged the Welford road club more than most and more than usual.
The powerful charges and belting tackles of Manu Tuilagi have been denied to club and country. And yet, the equally intimidating Luther Burrell graffiti's his name all over England's number 13 jersey.
The lineout prowess of Geoff Parling, who replaced a fractured Paul O’Connell in the Lions Test XV, is another laid low by injury. But in Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury England have more than filled that secondrow hole, they have goliaths who blot out the sun.
Tom Croft, the quick, versatile flanker is also crocked, but the backrow of Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola offers a near perfect mix of power, mobility and savvy.
Toby Flood's decision to join Toulouse next summer meant he was cut by Stuart Lancaster. There's a fairly strict selection policy laid out by the England coach. Like New Zealand, you play Premiership if you want to be part of the 2015 World Cup plans.
Scrumhalf Ben Youngs is struggling for form, behind a retreating Tigers pack (for reasons mentioned above), falling away from the brilliance of Danny Care and Northampton’s snappy serving Lee Dickson.
None of that unduly hinders Lancaster's young England. But the loss of tighthead Dan Cole, Leicester's one beacon of light in the current England set-up, for the season with a neck injury is incalculable.
Leicester should recover come April. They always find a way to climb into the Premiership brawl, but more immediate than that, Cole’s temporary demise poses a serious problem to England’s scrum dominance.
Pack problems
David Wilson is a differently
built prop while 22-year-old Sale tighthead Henry Thomas is not deemed ready for a Test duel with Cian Healy. Not from the kick-off anyway.
“I was very surprised when I saw the betting – England at minus four points for the win – hadn’t changed when Dan was ruled out,” says Geordan Murphy, who immediately switched from Leicester captain to assistant coach on retirement.
“I see that being a huge loss for bookmakers. Henry Thomas, who is going to Bath next year, is a young prop who will be very, very good but I don’t know if he is there just yet.”
Saracens director of rugby Mark McCall agrees that tighthead is the only obvious weakness in the English ranks.
“England have massive strength in depth in every position except . . . at tighthead. Dan Cole has played almost every minute of their big games over the last couple of years. David Wilson hasn’t played much in the last month or two so it is a huge loss. I’m sure Cian Healy will relish going in against an under-prepared Wilson.”
The chance to avenge the 2012 St Patrick’s Day scrum massacre, when Mike Ross hobbled off after 36 minutes to be replaced by ill-prepared loosehead prop Tom Court, suddenly looks a real prospect.
There were 22 scrums two years ago at Twickenham with Ireland coughing up four penalties on their own put-in, but that doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. It was brutal viewing for any Irish supporter as the English scrum dominated, contributing to the 30-9 final scoreline.
“I’m expecting the Irish frontrow to remember two years ago,” says Murphy. “I’m expecting a role reversal this time.”
The difference is in the rules now. If Wilson does struggle Thomas can come in. Same goes for Mike Ross thanks to Martin Moore’s progress (with Wexford native Tadhg Furlong showing last Thursday in Cardiff that both men need to watch their backs).
So, in all likelihood, the result will be decided elsewhere.
This England side has only one player with more than 50 caps, hooker Dylan Hartley. Brian O’Driscoll has played more tests than their entire back line.
But young, inexperienced English sides have defeated older, experienced Irish teams before. The expectation is they will target Ireland’s strengths. That means stopping the lineout maul and attacking the midfield partnership.
'Gain-line collisions'
"That's what makes this so interesting,"
says McCall. “I’m sure Joe Schmidt knows that England will be ready for the maul . . . It will be about who wins the gain-line collisions.
“If Ireland are successful in stopping Courtney Lawes, Billy Vunipola, Dylan Hartley from getting over the gain line and then slow the ball down, then they have gone a long way. But it’s a really intriguing tactical battle between Schmidt and Lancaster.”
McCall deems it “too simplistic” to compare England to his powerful Saracens side. But it is as good an example as any when it comes to how they grind teams down.
Murphy can see it: “It is very much about taking on teams physically.”
That means building enough momentum to launch Burrell through midfield, an approach that yielded a try in Paris and Edinburgh.
“Gordon and Brian have faced this sort of challenge many times . . . You have to give Luther Burrell the respect he deserves because he a big centre, á la Mathieu Bastareaud.”
Industrious England
Both Irish coaches in England identif
y Johnny May as a "great finisher", one "who can create something out of nothing" but want to see him targeted by Jonathan Sexton's boot.
But McCall expects a lavish English offering to the Twickenham gods today: “What really strikes me about Stuart’s team is the energy they have with or without the ball . . . They look relentless. They haven’t come up against anything like Ireland just yet. It’s going to be a huge battle up front.”
Murphy feels that victory for Ireland will lift Schmidt’s team into the realm of 1948 and 2009. “If you want to win a Grand Slam this is where it is done. Win at Twickenham and I think they will go on and win it in Paris.”
