Injury-cursed Connacht should find Ospreys beyond reach

Guinness Pro12
Connacht v Ospreys
Sportsground, Galway, 3pm Live S4C

Presume for a moment that Connacht beat the Ospreys – a far superior team who must win to secure a home semi-final – with a bonus point (just presume it), coupled with a Treviso victory over the Scarlets. Also presume the Scarlets don’t get their losing bonus point and Pat Lam’s men will finish sixth in the Pro12 meaning, for the first time in their history, they gain entry into the main European draw off their own steam.

If they win but the Scarlets cling onto sixth spot and Leinster do them a favour by winning in Edinburgh then Connacht will have to settle for seventh and a Champions Cup play-off against David Humphreys's Gloucester (who won the Challenge Cup) in Kingsholm on Sunday week.

Another possibility is the injury-cursed western province will lose this afternoon’s game. There’s also a decent chance that Leinster could buckle in Murrayfield. That would see Connacht miss out on a seat at the top table. Again.

There has been progress and the sight of Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw (wearing 13) should keep their hopes alive but their collective bargaining power makes it look like Leinster or Treviso or both must do them a big favour.

“Losing Darragh (Leader) and Danie (Poolman) in the same week to what is already an extensive injury list was obviously a blow but with the culture of team work we have, it’s just another opportunity for the next guy to step up and do the job,” said Lam.

“We all know the enormity of this game. Since pre-season, we have set our sights on a top-six finish and to be going into round 22 with our ultimate goal still a possibility is very exciting.”

Recent history tells us they will struggle to get within two scores of their visitors especially with Dan Lydiate to come off the bench.

CONNACHT: T O'Halloran; F Carr, R Henshaw, B Aki, M Healy; J Carty, K Marmion; D Buckley, T McCartney, R Ah You; A Browne, A Muldowney; J Muldoon (capt), E Masterson, E McKeon. Replacements: D Heffernan, JP Cooney, F Bealham, M Swift, G Naoupu, J Cooney, M Nikora, S O'Leary.

OSPREYS: D Evans; H Dirksen, B John, J Matavesi, E Walker; D Biggar, R Webb; N Smith, S Baldwin, D Arhip; T Ardron, A Wyn Jones (capt); J King, J Tipuric, D Baker. Replacements: S Parry, M Thomas, A Jarvis, R Thornton, D Lydiate, T Habberfield, S Davies, J Spratt.

Referee: Marius Mitrea (FIR).

Verdict: Ospreys win.