Ken Early: The bare facts look ugly for Stephen Kenny as Ireland’s qualification campaign is all but over

The September international break final reckoning: played two, lost two, zero points. “We need to play the game of our lives [against the Netherlands],” Stephen Kenny had said after the defeat in Paris. What they produced wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t enough.

What remains to be seen is whether these results – so-so performances, with depleted squads, against superior opposition – fall short of the FAI’s minimum expectations.

One important indicator: how would the crowd react at full-time? Before the game, when the manager’s name was read out by the stadium announcer, there had been a definite smattering of boos in among the usual cheers. This had felt significant, as the Aviva crowd’s support for the manager has been a consistent feature of his three years in charge.

The whistle sounded – but the announcer came to Kenny’s rescue, gallantly drowning out what sounded like a substantial round of boos by shouting “THE SCORE AT FULL-TIME, IRELAND 1 NETHERLANDS 2, THE FOOTBALL ASSOCIATION OF IRELAND WOULD LIKE TO THANK YOU FOR ATTENDING TONIGHT’S MATCH!”. By the time he had finished the only sound left in the stadium was coming from the celebrating Dutch fans behind Gavin Bazunu’s goal.

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The bare facts look ugly. Ireland have lost four out of five in the group – bringing Kenny’s total of competitive defeats to 13 in 26 matches. “Holland are our main rivals in the group,” he said on Thursday night, but that’s just insulting to Greece, who are also six points ahead. The Euro qualification campaign is over, and all that remains is to see whether results that happen between other teams in other groups end up lifting us into a playoff spot. At the moment we remain outside the playoff places.

It had all started so well. In the third minute, Chiedozie Ogbene nearly scored through a clever pressing routine, but the shot was blocked for a corner. Shane Duffy played in Paris to counter the aerial threat of Olivier Giroud, and Kenny might have picked him here to defend against Wout Weghorst, who had scored against Greece in the Netherlands’ previous game. Weghorst was not in the Netherlands starting team. But Duffy also gives a threat at offensive set-pieces, and here his header came down and hit Virgil van Dijk’s arm.

Penalty. Van Dijk looked disgusted with the decision but it has only been two days since he issued a public apology for arguing with referees. Adam Idah nailed the penalty into the bottom corner. There was real joy in the celebrations. For once the Aviva was as electric as Stephen Kenny advertises it as being.

For nearly 20 minutes Ireland tasted happiness. Then, out of the blue, the Netherlands scored. Doherty’s interception of van Dijk’s crossfield ball was itself immediately intercepted by Cody Gakpo, who drove forward and saw Denzel Dumfries tearing beyond Ireland’s defence on the far side. Gakpo’s quick low ball cut through Ireland’s defence, with Egan trying to step up but Duffy playing Dumfries onside, and the hopelessly exposed Bazunu brought down the onrushing Dutch wing-back. Gakpo made no mistake.

But the Dutch still looked vulnerable, none more so than van Dijk, who used to move with the power and grace of a big cat, but now looks like he could topple over at any moment whenever he gets above three-quarter speed. Idah chased a ball with him and the big Dutch defender sprawled to the ground under pressure, letting Idah in one-on-one ... but the referee decided there was a foul involved. If there was it was a small one. This was the kind of duel van Dijk used to win so easily opponents often didn’t bother contesting them; he doesn’t get that kind of respect any more.

Thus encouraged, Ireland kept chasing. Jason Knight nearly caught van Dijk in possession on 38 minutes, then two minutes later more good pressure from Ireland forced him to lay it off to a surprised Mark Flekken, who booted the ball comically out of play to a huge roar.

It was 1-1 at half-time – a good start – but could Ireland close the deal? The Netherlands, unable to impose their passing game, were clearly rattled, far below their potential. There was the opportunity here for a big result. This is what reputations are made of.

But it was the Dutch who acted to change the pattern. Ronald Koeman made two changes: off came left-back Daley Blind and midfielder Mats Wieffer, on came big centre-forward Weghorst and Milan midfielder Tijjani Reijnders. The changes were designed to get more players into the central zone to establish control. They worked.

Ten minutes later, finding himself under no pressure 30 yards out, the Dutch playmaker Frenkie De Jong chipped a ball over the Irish defence to the overlapping Dumfries. His marker, James McClean, did not go with him, not realising Duffy in the middle was playing him onside. As Dumfries headed the ball across goal Duffy went to clear it but he got velociraptored by Weghorst, attacking from the blind side to get to the ball first and stab it past Bazunu.

Twice Ireland had paid for Duffy’s instinct to defend just a little bit deeper ... but the big defender didn’t pick himself. On 73 minutes – too late? – Kenny finally moved to change the shape, sending on Jamie McGrath and Will Smallbone for John Egan and Alan Browne and switching to a back four. The hoped-for late siege did not happen. Ireland finished the match with slightly more possession than their opponents, but also one shot on target to five.

The group draw could not have given Ireland a more difficult task, and even with four defeats in five they have only slightly underperformed objective expectations.

But when the most commonly-heard arguments for keeping you on include “Who else could do better with this squad?”, “Would they want to be looking for managers for both the men’s and women’s teams at the same time?” and “What even is the point of sacking him now?” – you know things are not looking good.