Michael Walker: Ambition and anxiety, the tale of two matches

Around 30 miles separate Sunderland from Middlesbrough and, as it stands, there is a division between the two football clubs.

Around 40 miles separate Derby from Birmingham and, as it stands, there is a division between Derby County and Aston Villa.

But if the 92 clubs in England are viewed as one long table, Sunderland are 19th, Villa 20th, Middlesbrough 21st and Derby 22nd. Today, the four come together: Boro and Derby at the top of the Championship; Sunderland and Villa at the bottom of the Premier League.

One ground – Middlesbrough’s Riverside – will stage a match wrapped in anticipation and ambition.

The other – Sunderland’s Stadium of Light – will stage one gripped by anxiety. On Teesside the game is all about what is to be won; on Wearside the game is all about what is to be lost.

The tension at both places will be, to use a Chelsea word, palpable.

The economics of next season and the new £5.5 billion TV deal means it is said, and repeated, that there has never been a worse time to leave the Premier League and never a better time to join it.

Invest wisely

All four clubs think this, which is why the two in peril of relegation have changed their manager this season already, while the two seeking promotion are endeavouring to invest wisely and be as stable as possible in an often tumultuous division.

It is about more than money, though. It is about sporting success and failure, players’ careers, managers’ careers. It’s about the future, short and long-term.

When Aitor Karanka almost grumpily accepted compliments on Middlesbrough’s latest win – and clean sheet – on Monday night, he clearly wasn’t thinking about cash.

Boro’s victory over Sheffield Wednesday took them back to the top of the Championship. It was 1-0 and the second half was as tight as that scoreline suggests.

The clean sheet was Boro’s ninth in their last ten Championship matches – only Hull City have scored against them since the end of October – and they have not conceded at home since mid-September.

Biggest rival

This is why Boro are top, why they are favourites for promotion, having lost the play-off final to Norwich last season. Yet Karanka’s unsmiling response was: “It is nice to get records and win games. But it is our duty to get promotion.”

Our duty. That’s a statement.

Karanka then addressed Derby County: “I said five months ago that they are one of the best, if not the best in the division. They are building a team, spending money and Paul is doing a really good job. I thought at the start of the season they would be our biggest rival and that is the case.”

The 'Paul' Karanka referred to is Paul Clement. Karanka is 42 and has three Champions League winners' medals with Real Madrid. Monday was his 100th game in charge of Middlesbrough.

Clement is 43 and did not progress beyond non-League as a player. He has been in charge at Derby since the start of the season.

What the two men share, beyond Championship management, is that their last club posting was at the Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid. Karanka was Jose Mourinho’s assistant; Clement was Carlo Ancelotti’s assistant.

It is a neat subplot within the overall story and one would imagine that the education received at Real is benefitting both men – as are their contacts.

Derby rested three players at Leeds on Tuesday; they have lost one game since the end of August.

This should be a contest worth travelling to see.

We should also anticipate that Boro and Derby will recruit in this month’s window. The logic is that investment today will bring profit tomorrow and there is the example of Watford, Bournemouth and Norwich this season, Leicester two seasons ago and Crystal Palace the season before that.

It can be done: promotion to the Premier League can be followed by progress within it.

One of the reasons is that quite a few Premier League clubs are run badly. Complacency mingles with ineptitude. Which brings us back to Sunderland versus Aston Villa.

When professional football began in England, these were the first two sustained powers in the land.

That was a long time ago of course, but the clubs have lived off their history and the better times they enjoyed since – Villa winning the European Cup in 1982 is no small matter.

And Villa were in an FA Cup final as recently as May, while Sunderland were in the League Cup final in 2014.

But both cup runs masked longer decline. Villa’s last four Premier League placings have been 17th, 15th, 15th, 16th. Sunderland’s: 16th, 14th, 17th, 13th. They have been scraping by.

In three of the last four seasons Villa's points total has been 38. That coincidentally is the target Sam Allardyce set for Sunderland following their latest defeat, to Liverpool, on Wednesday night.

After half a season, Villa have eight and Sunderland 12. The 38 figure looks a long way off, as does 35, which has been the average number required to stay up over the past decade.

“I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think we could get to 38 points,” Allardyce sniffed on Wednesday. “Might as well go home.”

Allardyce and his counterpart at Villa, Remi Garde, have the luxury (comparative) that most observers possess the broader perception that the problems at each American-owned club long pre-date their managers' recent arrivals.

Anguished howls

Even on matchdays that awareness is in the background. There were few anguished howls on Wednesday from Wearsiders as Sunderland fell to a fifth consecutive defeat.

Accustomed to losing, Sunderland lost on the 5th, 12th, 19th, 26th and 30th of December. When asked about his view of the month, Allardyce’s reply was succinct: “Shite”.

It will be said again should Villa leave the Stadium of Light with a point or three. Allardyce called it the biggest game of the season, though as he added: “The last time we faced ‘the biggest game of the season’ we failed miserably. That was Watford.

“We haven’t won a point since then, so this is even bigger than Watford. We must hold our nerve.”

From saying Villa need 10 wins, Garde has moved to say there are 57 points to play for. It’s a more optimistic expression, but lose at Sunderland and Villa should start preparing for next season in the Championship.

The fans have taken to saying that owner Randy Lerner has gone from "hero to Nero", watching from afar as Aston Villa burns. And as it does, as Wearside frets, Derby County and Middlesbrough build.