South Africa at crossroads between economic recovery and failed state, says opposition leader

May’s general election in South Africa offers opposition politicians “the best opportunity we have had in 30 years” to remove the ruling ANC from power, according to John Steenhuisen, the leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA).

The Durban-born politician, who officially became the leader of South Africa’s main opposition party in November 2020, sees the poll as a “crossroads election” that will put the country on a path to economic recovery or hasten its spiral towards “a failed state”.

Speaking at his parliamentary office in Cape Town, Steenhuisen (47) maintained that one way or another, the election should be historic, with indications that it will usher in a new era of national-level political coalitions for a country ruled solely by the ANC since 1994. The May 29th ballot “looks like it will be the first election in 75 years where no party obtains an outright majority,” Steenhuisen said, before adding: “There’s a huge opportunity there for a party like the DA to prevail.”

To take advantage of the ANC’s dwindling support over the past 15 years, 11 opposition parties and civil society groups launched a coalition in August, of which the DA is the largest member. The Multi-Party Charter (MPC) coalition also includes the Inkatha Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus, ActionSA, and the African Christian Democratic Party, along with other smaller political movements.

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Since its inception the DA has struggled to make inroads with South Africa’s black electorate, many of whom believe the party predominately represents white people’s interests.

As a result the DA has failed to improve on the 22.2 per cent of the national vote it secured in the 2014 election. Despite this challenge, Steenhuisen maintains his party is the most racially diverse in South Africa, citing a 2022 survey by the local Social Research Foundation that found b, white and mixed-race members each represented about 30 per cent of its ranks.

However, he hopes that partnering with the predominately black Inkatha Freedom Party and the multiracial ActionSA will help to broaden the DA’s appeal among black voters. Until recently few political observers have given the coalition a realistic chance of winning the election, although they see it having a sizeable impact in urban areas.

Even accounting for the ANC’s loss of urban support over the last two national polls, it retains massive support in rural South Africa. The ANC can also look to a coalition to stay in power were it to fall short of the 50 per cent plus one vote it needs to govern alone.

But a new voter survey released by the Johannesburg-based think tank, the Brenthurst Foundation, suggests the coalition is closing the gap on the ANC. This survey of registered voters released on March 10th puts the MPC just 6 per cent behind the ANC, with 39 per cent of the vote. “Look, the gap’s closing,” said Steenhuisen, whose Irish grandmother emigrated to South Africa from Bray, Co Wicklow.

“But we still must get over the 50 per cent mark, and that’s still a bit too far away for my liking.”

The Brenthurst survey mirrors other voter polls from the past six months which suggest the ANC is in danger of losing its dominant grip on South African politics. Massive corruption and incompetence among its ranks and government deployees, a poor public sector service delivery record, and an inability to tackle crime, create jobs or improve the economy, have worked against the former liberation movement.

While this situation suggests opportunity is knocking for Steenhuisen’s DA and other opposition parties, he has growing concerns over the lengths the ANC might go to retain power. He believes the potential for the ANC to undergo “a radical [political] shift to the left” to ensure it stays in government has international and local investors watching this year’s election very carefully. Were the ANC, the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters, and former president Jacob Zuma’s new uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) to form a coalition government, “many investors will be very, very concerned and probably look elsewhere for investment opportunities.”

A recent scandal at South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which saw a leak of the ANC’s and EFF’s election candidates lists to the public, has also left Steenhuisen worried about the integrity of the ballot. “What that says to me is that they’ve [the ANC] been deploying cadres to the IEC, who have now split into the different factions that are reflected in the ANC and they are working to undermine each other,” he said. Only last week the DA wrote to the African Union, the US and other western countries, asking for international help “to ensure the integrity” of the vote and “safeguard against any attempts to disrupt the democratic process” from at home or abroad.

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Ensuring the radical left remains outside national government is such a concern for Steenhuisen, he said he could not rule out forming a coalition with the ANC.

“We might have to take the least-worst option to prevent the doomsday scenario of the ANC making a deal with the EFF and the MKP that will drag the party leftward,” he said. “In that scenario I think you’ll see overnight disinvestment and loss of confidence in the country.”

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