In Thailand’s May general election, Bangkok office worker Anat Wongmadthong was excited to vote for Move Forward, a progressive party promising a radical break from almost a decade of military rule.
But while Move Forward stormed to an unexpected election victory, its erstwhile ally, the Pheu Thai party, founded by billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, this week sealed a deal with the generals that would keep military influence at the heart of Thai government.
The pact, forged despite Pheu Thai’s previous pledges to work with Move Forward to oust the military-backed government, has left many Thais deeply disappointed, said Anat (27). “We are so fed up with the same old political climate,” he said. “That’s why we voted for change.”
Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin was voted in as prime minister on Wednesday, backed by senators appointed by the military government who had previously blocked Move Forward candidate Pita Limjaroenrat.
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It was a remarkable turnaround for a party founded by Thaksin, who was ousted as prime minister in a military coup in 2006 and whose younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra suffered a similar fate in 2014.
Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Thailand’s Naresuan University, said Pheu Thai had made a “Faustian bargain” by putting itself in opposition to Move Forward.
“The military has legitimised themselves,” Chambers said.
To many in Thailand, a central part of Pheu Thai’s deal with the generals was hinted at by party founder Thaksin’s return to Thailand from 15 years of self-imposed exile on the day that Srettha was appointed prime minister.
Thaksin (74), was convicted in absentia of corruption and abuse of power after he was ousted and began serving an eight-year sentence immediately upon his return. But few expect the former premier, a towering figure in Thai politics for the past two decades, to be behind bars for long.
“Thaksin likes to play with an ace up his sleeve,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.
As prime minister, Thaksin alienated the royalist-military establishment and urban elites, sparking widespread unrest in Bangkok that culminated in the 2006 coup. But he is revered by many working-class Thais for policies that tackled inequality and rural development.
Thaksin was “a juggernaut”, Thitinan said. “He changed the nature of Thai politics ... he captured hearts and minds.”
But there will be political costs to collaborating with the generals in a country where coups and judicial intervention have been used for decades to neutralise challenges to the deeply conservative establishment.
Pheu Thai has done “heavy damage to its brand” as a standard-bearer for democracy and is now a “fully conservative and pro-establishment party”, said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a PhD student at the University of Michigan.
While Pheu Thai came second in May’s election, Thaksin’s party is now outnumbered by military-aligned MPs in its new coalition, and local media have suggested military-backed parties will claim top defence positions in the new government and possibly the interior ministry.
As prime minister, Srettha (61), will lack a power base of his own. The former chief executive of Sansiri, one of the country’s largest property developers, was frequently outshone on the campaign trail by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter and another senior Pheu Thai figure.
“Pheu Thai’s MPs are not beholden to [Srettha] and did not ride on his coattails to get elected,” Lohatepanont said, adding that Thaksin’s return sent the message “that the Shinawatras are once again in the driver’s seat”.
Pheu Thai has emphasised the business credentials of Srettha, who started his career at Procter & Gamble’s Thailand arm. He has also taken the lead in promoting a populist agenda that includes plans to give 10,000 baht (€264) digital wallets to all Thais over the age of 16 at an estimated cost of €15 billion.
The new government’s first priority is reviving Thailand’s economy, southeast Asia’s second-largest, which is heavily reliant on trade and tourism. Thailand responded to the coronavirus pandemic by unleashing 1.5 trillion baht in stimulus spending. But the economy has struggled to rebound, with growth slowing to just 1.8 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
Thailand’s benchmark SET stock index is down 7.6 per cent year to date in dollar terms, among the worst in the region. Since the start of the year, foreign investors have taken a net $3.8 billion out of the Thai stock market, according to Financial Times calculations based on market data.
Move Forward, whose MPs voted unanimously against Srettha’s appointment as prime minister, faces even more problems. Thailand’s constitutional court is considering whether the party’s pledge to reform a lèse majesté law criminalising insults to the monarchy constitutes a threat to overthrow the government. The case could result in the party’s dissolution.
Move Forward leader Pita remains barred from parliament pending investigation into his ownership of shares in a defunct television broadcaster.
Thitinan said Pheu Thai’s credibility would be further dented if Thaksin were granted a royal pardon, as widely speculated, while protesters, some of them teenagers, remained in prison after anti-monarchy demonstrations in 2020.
That movement has not been extinguished, as millions of Move Forward voters showed, particularly in Bangkok, where the party won every seat but one. Eliminating their voice in parliament would risk a renewed popular challenge to Thailand’s most powerful institutions.
“People are really angry at Pheu Thai right now,” said Chambers. “Thaksin is creating more problems by coming back.”
Additional reporting by Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023