Asia-PacificAnalysis

Xi and Biden determined to stabilise relations, but no breakthrough expected

A 105-minute phone call between the two leaders came in advance of a trilateral summit between the US, Japan and the Philippines next week

President Xi Jinping of China and US president Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia, in 2022. A 105-minute phone call between them is the latest sign of their determination to stabilise their relationship. Photograph: Doug Mills/New York Times

Denis Staunton's face
Denis Staunton China Correspondent
Wed Apr 3 2024 - 18:56

A 105-minute phone call between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping is the latest sign of the determination of both leaders to stabilise the relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries. But the readouts from Beijing and Washington suggest that neither side expects a breakthrough on the economic and geopolitical issues that divide them.

Xi warned Biden off crossing Beijing’s red line over Taiwan by encouraging “separatist activities”, and complained that the US was trying to suppress China’s trade and technology development. Biden chided Xi for supporting Russia’s military industrial base even if China does not supply lethal weapons for the war against Ukraine.

The call came in advance of a trilateral summit between the US, Japan and the Philippines next week aimed at strengthening their common resolve to resist China’s territorial acquisitiveness in the South China Sea. Beijing and Manila are locked in a dispute over a disputed part of the South China Sea that has threatened to turn violent in recent weeks after China’s coast guard fired water cannon on Philippines vessels.

According to the Chinese readout of the call, Xi identified three overarching principles that should guide relations between Beijing and Washington in 2024.

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“First, peace must be valued. The two sides should put a floor of no conflict and no confrontation under the relationship, and keep reinforcing the positive outlook of the relationship. Second, stability must be prioritised. The two sides should refrain from setting the relationship back, provoking incident or crossing the line so as to maintain the overall stability of the relationship. Third, credibility must be upheld. The two sides should honour their commitments to each other with action,” he said.

Neither side has lived up to those principles in recent years, and both have acted provocatively and failed to honour their commitments. That goes part of the way towards explaining the collapse of trust between them, which this week’s call was part of a process of addressing.

The US is considering higher tariffs on some Chinese imports and is pressuring allies to tighten further restrictions on exporting advanced technology to China. And China is pursuing an industrial policy that is destined to generate an overcapacity in manufacturing that alarms the US and the European Union.

The call between Biden and Xi did little to resolve such conflicts but the very fact of it is testament to an easing of tensions since their meeting in San Francisco last November. Both sides will hope that if they keep talking they can manage their rivalry and avert a downward spiral that would damage the interests of both and threaten global stability.

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