Mid-summer ballot pays off for Spain’s Pedro Sánchez

Spanish leader Pedro Sánchez’s gamble in holding a snap election in midsummer appears to have paid off, with the right-wing opposition failing to unseat him as prime minister, although the close result has raised the possibility of a repeat ballot.

In Sunday’s election, Sánchez’s Socialists came a close second to the conservative Popular Party (PP) of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who looks unlikely to be able to form a government. His party’s only potential ally – the far-right Vox – performed poorly and, together, the two parties are seven seats short of a parliamentary majority.

On Monday, however, the PP was adamant that it would attempt to create a workable majority. “Either [Núñez] Feijóo is voted in or there will be an impasse and a repeat election,” said the party’s spokeswoman, Cuca Gamarra.

Sánchez called the election – which had been scheduled for December – just hours after his Socialists and their left-wing allies suffered major losses in local elections in late May. It was seen as a high-risk move, especially as Spain had never held a general election in midsummer before.

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With expectations low for the left going into the vote, the result suggests that the move has paid off for Sánchez. His own chances of forming a government are also narrow, although he appears to have more options than the conservatives.

Along with the new Sumar platform to his left, which is now the fourth group in parliament, he would need the backing of Catalan and Basque nationalist parties in order to secure a majority. They include the hardline Together for Catalonia (JxCat), which is demanding a referendum on Catalan independence in exchange for any such co-operation – a concession Sánchez has repeatedly refused to countenance in the past.

On Monday, Sumar started discussions with JxCat in an effort to reach an agreement on an eventual investiture vote.

“Spain is a parliamentary democracy, with its deadlines and its procedures,” Sánchez told his party. “This democracy will find a formula for governing.”

A fiercely fought campaign had frequently put the prime minister on the back foot as the right accused him of pandering to Catalan and Basque nationalists. Núñez Feijóo, meanwhile, promised that if he was elected, he would roll back a series of laws introduced by the Sánchez government, including in the areas of transgender rights and historical memory.

[ Fear of ‘the fascists coming back’ helped mobilise Spain’s left ]

For now, Sánchez’s agenda remains in place and he looks likely to be able to see out Spain’s tenure of the revolving European Union presidency, which began this month. He has cast this result as a major victory in the culture war between Spain’s left and right and his own party as a beacon of hope in a Europe which has been facing a tide of right-wing populism.

“Spain has said no to regression and backwardness and the Socialist Party is a reference point for the world,” he told party colleagues on Monday.

With new MPs due to be sworn in in mid-August, King Felipe is then expected to invite Núñez Feijóo to attempt to form a government. Should he fail, as expected, Sánchez will have his turn. If he, too, is unable to win an investiture vote, the clock will start ticking down to a repeat election, possibly at the end of this year.

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The PP has suggested that the Socialists could ensure there is no political standoff before then by abstaining in an investiture vote for Núñez Feijóo. Given the deep ideological gap that has opened up between the two parties, however, that looks unlikely.

This is not the first time in recent years that Spain has found itself in political limbo. Inconclusive elections in 2015 and 2019 each led to repeat ballots a few months later.

Although Sunday’s result has underlined the difficulties in forming a governing majority in Spain, it also saw the country’s political centre of gravity shift back towards the centre.

“If you look at the results, it’s clear that the two big parties, the PP and the Socialists, are making up lost ground,” said political commentator Angélica Rubio.

“Has the old bi-party system returned completely? No, because Vox and Sumar are there. But it is recovering.”

The share of seats won by the PP and Socialists was greater than in any election since 2011, before the arrival of a number of new parties which fragmented the political landscape. With the far-left party Podemos absorbed into Sumar and the centre-right Ciudadanos collapsing altogether recently, this election has reshaped Spain’s politics once again, leaving it delicately balanced between left and right.