It’s too close to call as the Netherlands prepares to head to the polls

For the first time in 13 years, the Dutch are facing a general election – on November 22nd – that won’t return Mark Rutte as prime minister, as the last four in a row have done. “Rutte fatigue” has taken its toll – on politics and on the electorate.

Less than two weeks out from polling, the impression is of a country hell-bent on embracing change: with 51 per cent planning to switch party allegiance, 23 per cent still undecided and the margins between the three front-runners wafer-thin.

The resignation of “Teflon Mark” as VVD leader after his coalition imploded over immigration last July has sparked a generational clear-out at the top in parliament and sent a simple message, especially after a bizarre 2021 election that returned the same four parties to power: this time, nobody is safe.

As a result, never before have there been so many heavy-hitting new parties, so many well-known faces dispatched in the run-up, or so many inexperienced new leaders.

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What’s happening, suggests polling from I&O Research, is that voters are ending their traditional attachment to a handful of “establishment” parties – such as the VVD or the Christian Democrats – and setting out on a more transactional path with parties that respond to their key concerns.

The Israel-Hamas war, while it’s dominating the news in the Netherlands, is having little impact on voters’ behaviour. The same is true of the war in Ukraine. Just 20 per cent see them as relevant issues

“These floating voters are not indecisive”, says Peter Kanne of I&O. “They’re listening, informing themselves. They’ll decide when the time comes, though perhaps just for this one election.”

That new transactional approach to polling is reflected too in the fact that the Israel-Hamas war, while it’s dominating the news in the Netherlands, is having little impact on voters’ behaviour. The same is true of the war in Ukraine. Just 20 per cent see them as relevant issues.

Instead, with typical Dutch pragmatism, the priorities are wholly domestic.

The cost of healthcare is key for 65 per cent of voters. A trustworthy government is a priority for 63 per cent, a reflection of the fury over the child benefits scandal that brought down the third Rutte coalition. Inflation is critical for 62 per cent; housing for 59 per cent, immigration for 55 per cent.

In the absence of the man who once said he saw himself more as “a manager” than a politician with “the vision thing”, who will lead the Dutch population of almost 18 million into a new post-Rutte political era?

As things stand, this election is very much a three-horse race.

Neck and neck are Rutte’s successor as VVD leader, Turkish-born Dilan Yesilgoz; Rutte’s nemesis, independent MP Pieter Omtzigt, who now heads his own party, New Social Contract (NSC); and Frans Timmermans, until recently EU Commission vice-president who now leads an amalgamation of Labour and GreenLeft.

The latest poll of polls on Thursday shows the VVD marginally ahead with between 26 and 30 seats in the 150-seat parliament. The NSC are on between 25 and 31 seats, while GreenLeft are on 21 to 25.

One way or another, barring a major last-minute upset in the next fortnight, there is a real possibility those three parties could have the seats – if not the unity of purpose – to form a viable government without the need for a fourth.

In the background, a beacon of consistency, is the far-right Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, consistently anti-immigration, consistently anti-EU, and consistently excluded from government

Lagging behind them is the “farmer-citizen protest party”, BBB (BoerBurgerBeweging), founded by former agriculture journalist Caroline van der Plas, which swept all before it in regional elections last March but appears to have lost momentum since then.

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The BBB has been polling consistently in recent weeks at around 12 seats, though Van der Plas says she believes a more realistic outcome remains 20 to 25 seats, which would allow her to form her favoured coalition – with Omtzigt’s NSC, Yesilgov’s VVD and the fundamentalist Protestant party, SGP.

In the background, a beacon of consistency, is the far-right Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, consistently anti-immigration, consistently anti-EU, and consistently excluded from government – although, intriguingly, Yesilgoz has indicated that could change.