EuropeAnalysis

EU’s decision to discuss membership with Ukraine and Moldova is momentous, but hurdles remain

Surprising move is a welcome morale boost for Ukraine at a time when funding for its military effort is in doubt

Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban arrived at the EU summit in pugnacious form but, contrary to expectations, he did not use a veto to block membership talks with Ukraine. Photograph: Miguel Medina /AFP via Getty Images

Naomi O’Leary's face
Naomi O’Leary in Brussels
Thu Dec 14 2023 - 22:04

The announcement came suddenly and unexpectedly, causing journalists to exclaim in confusion and a crowd to rush across the press area to seek confirmation from an official.

EU officials who were upstairs monitoring developments in the negotiating room described being equally blindsided by the message that was passed out: “The European Council has decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova”.

Hungary’s Viktor Orban had widely been expected to veto the move and arrived at the summit in the morning in pugnacious form, telling journalists “there is no reason to negotiate membership of Ukraine now ... because the conditions were not met”.

But when the moment came to make the decision in the evening, Orban stepped outside the room, allowing the remaining 26 national leaders to make the momentous move to approve the opening of membership talks with two neighbouring countries living under the shadow of Russian aggression, and to grant candidate status to Georgia.

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“It’s a historical moment,” European Council president Charles Michel told a crush of journalists as he emerged from the negotiations to deliver brief remarks.

“It’s a very powerful political signal, it’s a very powerful political decision. Today and tonight, I think of the people of Ukraine. We are on their side. This decision made by the member states is extremely important for the credibility of the European Union,” he said.

Earlier in the day, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had warned that a failure to make the decision would grant Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin “his first and only victory of the year”.

His reaction to the announcement was jubilant. “This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe. A victory that motivates, inspires and strengthens,” he wrote on social media.

Moldovan president Maia Sandu vowed that her country of 2.6 million was ready for the “hard work” required to become an EU member state. “We’re feeling Europe’s warm embrace today,” she wrote.

Hurdles remain on the long and difficult path to EU membership, which will require many future votes by the EU to keep proceeding.

What persuaded Orban to stand down is unclear. EU officials have denied there was a link to a European Commission decision on Wednesday to release €10 billion in funding for the country that had been frozen over rule-of-law concerns.

Regardless, the decision is a seen as a vital boost in morale for Ukrainians as they suffer continuing bombardment from Russia while its army seeks to edge further into their territory nearly two years since Moscow launched its invasion.

It follows a difficult period for Ukraine as funding to support its military effort is bogged down by political fighting in Washington, and amid concerns that solidarity with Kyiv in Europe is flagging.

EU leaders continued their negotiations into Thursday night to break their own deadlock on funding for Kyiv.

A proposal to provide €50 billion in grants and loans for Ukraine as part of the EU’s budget, aimed to give Kyiv security and to help it to continue functioning as a state in the medium term, ran into challenges before the summit.

Some countries did not want to sign off on the financial lifeline without receiving more money for their own crises, officials said. They were strongly opposed by a group of frugal EU states, who argued for as little extra money for non-Ukraine issues to be added to the EU’s budget as possible.

Orban told journalists he was against including the funding in the EU’s budget, too. There was speculation that the 26 could circumvent him once again, by deciding to go outside EU structures to extend the money as a group themselves.

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