Even at this late stage, commentators remain uncertain as to who is most likely to be elected the next pope. In the field of “papabiles” – the cardinals considered potential candidates to be pope – all is speculation.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin – Italy
The contender whose odds have waxed and waned most since the death of Pope Francis last month is Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70). An Italian, he would be seen as the continuity candidate par excellence; he was Vatican secretary of state for most of Francis’s papacy.
Parolin would appeal to the more conservative members among the 133 cardinal electors who will pick the next pontiff as he is believed to have demurred at some of what some in the church would consider Francis’s “extravagances”, such as authorising blessings for same-sex couples in December 2023. In 2015, the Italian cardinal described the referendum in Ireland that allowed same-sex marriage as a “defeat for humanity”.
His style is careful and measured, but he would likely be a low-key pope. It was a reason why he dipped out of favour after delivering a lacklustre homily to 200,000 teenagers in St Peter’s Square at a Mass the day after Francis’s funeral.
Cardinal Luis Tagle – the Philippines
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67) would be considered a more outgoing personality with an eye for the spotlight. This has led some to question whether he has quite the amount of gravitas to be pope. Formerly Archbishop of Manila in the Philippines, he enjoys karaoke. A clip of him singing John Lennon’s Imagine has gone viral since his name began to crop up as a serious contender for the papacy.
For some in the church, notably on the American Catholic right, Tagle is perceived to be too liberal. He,has been dubbed “the Asian Francis”. From a continent and country where Catholicism is growing fast, the cardinal also has extensive experience at the Vatican as prefect of its Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples.
Tagle’s mother was Chinese, and he studied for seven years in the US, so his English is good – a skill that is not always common among papabiles. He has been to Ireland twice. In 2012, he spoke at the 50th International Eucharistic Congress in Dublin and again at the World Meeting of Families in 2018, where “Chito”, as he is called, proved something of a charmer with an entertaining speech to attendees.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi – Italy
A contender who might yet take everyone by surprise is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (69), Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference. A cardinal also framed in the Francis mould, Zuppi said last year that faith in God was not always necessary, as there are notable examples of altruism even among those who lack it. Loving one’s neighbour was what mattered, he said.
In 2023, Pope Francis appointed him to lead the Vatican diplomatic mission to ease tensions in the Ukraine conflict and promote gestures of humanity that might lay the foundations for a just peace. He visited Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and Beijing.
Described as genial, accessible, and possessing a media-savvy approach, he has often been compared to Francis in his emphasis on mercy and outreach, especially for the poor and the marginalised. He has even celebrated the traditional Latin Mass, which may please more conservative Catholics, though it’s doubtful they would warm to him.
Cardinal Mario Grech – Malta
A man who just might please sufficient numbers in the middle – along with enough among the more liberal and more conservative cardinal electors – is Cardinal Mario Grech (68), from the tiny island of Gozo off Malta.
Somewhat reserved, the former bishop of Gozo comes from a more conservative background but has evolved to the mindset of Francis.
He has been central, as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, to the ongoing synodal process initiated by Pope Francis and, as such, has been in the somewhat unique position among all papabiles of having had contact with almost all cardinal electors.
He is familiar with the Vatican, having served on the Roman Rota, and he had been a bishop in Malta for more than 18 years. Coming from a small country is an advantage too, not least where geopolitics is concerned. Francis made him a cardinal in 2020.
Cardinal Peter Turkson – Ghana
A leading African papabile is Cardinal Turkson (75) from Ghana. The first cardinal from the African country, he has extensive Vatican experience and a reputation for being strong on inter-religious dialogue, no doubt helped by his background. His mother was Methodist, while a paternal uncle was Muslim. But his age and the very conservative nature of the African church may not help him.
It is believed unlikely an African pope will emerge from this conclave. It is a young, growing, vibrant church, but at odds with the many liberal tendencies favoured more universally. An example would be the statement last year where the Catholic bishops of Africa and Madagascar, responding to Pope Francis’s declaration in 2023 allowing priests to offer blessings to same-sex couples, unanimously asserted they would not do so as such unions were “contrary to the will of God”.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu – Democratic Republic of the Congo
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (65), Archbishop of Kinshasa, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, considered a volatile character, has also been talked about as an African papabile, but it is unlikely he will be elected this time either.
He told Pope Francis, directly, that the African bishops would not be allowing same-sex blessings on the continent. In a speech afterwards, he said the West was destroying its foundations by rejecting the family, marriage, and children.
The Jesuit Cardinal Michael Czerny (78), a Czech-born Canadian and currently prefect of the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, was quoted in a New York Times article last Sunday as saying that some African cardinals made him “shudder” and how he believed “conservatives” were calling for an African pope to further their agenda.
