Poland is heading for a period of political uncertainty after Sunday’s presidential run-off ended in a photo finish.
Early projections suggested a gap of just 70,000 votes with a record turnout of nearly 73 per cent among Poland’s 29 million registered voters.
Pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling government of Donald Tusk, had the narrowest of leads after polls closed, with 50.3 per cent.
Just 0.6 points behind him in the same TVP public broadcaster exit poll was Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, polling 49.7 per cent.
Dolores McNamara: Whatever happened to the €115m lotto winner?
Kneecap case: ‘A woman pointed to a sniggering Móglaí Bap as the magistrate asked if anyone knew an Irish interpreter’
Lions v Argentina: Tadhg Furlong makes bench as Andy Farrell names three Irish in starting team
Boy (13) uploaded sexual abuse photographs of sister (6) to Discord social media channel
However, a late poll on Sunday night flipped the initial result, putting Mr Nawrocki first on 50.7 per cent, with 49.3 for Mr Trzaskowski
Despite that, the government-backed Trzaskowski appeared minutes after polls closed to claim: “We won, we did everything that could be done.”
“I will be the president of all Poles — of all Polish women and men,” he added.
There was no hint of concession over in the rival camp, however, with Karol Nawrocki promising eventual victory to supporters who cheered “President Narwocki Nawrocki” and “We won”.
“This night will be ours yet,” he said. “We managed to unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland without illegal immigrants.”
Analysts say the final result, not likely until Monday, is likely to be decided by the non-resident vote – and possibly face challenge in the courts from the loser.
In the first round, two weeks ago, Trzaskowski was shocked to finish just two points ahead – but took comfort from scoring six points higher among non-resident voters than his overall result.
Meanwhile Nawrocki’s popularity among the US Polish diaspora was 12 points above his final result, after he was endorsed by president Donald Trump during a White House visit.
While Polish prime minister Donald Tusk remained silent on Sunday night, Nawrocki’s leading backer, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, praised his candidate for prevailing against a “Niagara of lies” from rivals and the media.
“We have won because we are right,” he said, “because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present and about all that’s wrong in our country today”.
Former president Bronislaw Komorowski compared the result to his win in 2010 with a five-point lead.
“Based on exit polls I had a guaranteed win, overnight the numbers changed several times but eventually I won,” he said.
The vote reflects deep divisions in this country of almost 38 million and reflects the challenges ahead for Tusk.
The centrist-liberal pro-EU prime minister returned to power in December 2023 with a mandate to roll back PiS polices, from illegal court reforms to a near-ban on abortion.
But the outgoing, PiS-allied outgoing president Andrzej Duda proved a strong adversary, vetoing key government legislation.
Complicating Tusk’s political day-to-day still further is his unwieldy coalition, including farmers and urban liberals, who have clashed over policies such as abortion liberalisation.
Another term with a PiS-alled president, Tusk knows, would be a political disaster: hobbling his national legislative ambition, complicating EU relations and making a snap election likely.
The tight result on Sunday revived doubts – and finger-pointing over Rafal Trzaskowski’s suitability as a candidate, five years after his first failed attempt to take the presidency.
Back then he ran as an opposition candidate, tapping into growing unhappiness with the then PiS government and its presidential incumbent. This time around he became a focus for voters frustrated with the Tusk administration.
The 53-year-old Trzaskowski cut his political teeth as a teenage volunteer in Poland’s first partially-free elections in 1989. As a multilingual political professional with a pro-EU and LGBT-supportive agenda, he was the perfect big-city liberal for PiS scare campaigns about shadowy elites in their rural, conservative heartland.
Even among his own supporters in Warsaw, where Trzaskowski has served as mayor for seven years, he has a mixed reputation. One senior political ally accused Trzaskowski last night of running a “lazy, arrogant campaign” with confused and contradictory messaging.
At a mass rally in Warsaw a week ago Trzaskowski made his final pitch to voters as “a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone”.
But first-round analysis showed how his promises to push for an end to what he called Poland’s “medieval” abortion laws, and to introduce same-sex civil partnerships, put him beyond the pale for more conservative Poles in eastern and south-eastern regions.
Here Karol Narowcki, a conservative historian and former amateur boxer, was by far the most popular candidate, presenting himself as the anti-elist defender of Polish identity and national interests.
His campaign was hit by a series of scandals, over an undeclared second home and involvement in street fights, as well as allegations he denied about links to the Polish underworld and red-light scene.
