Donald Trump’s special envoy is expected in Moscow days before the US president’s deadline on Friday for Russia to make progress on ending the war in Ukraine or face increased US sanctions.
Mr Trump said Steve Witkoff would visit Moscow on Wednesday or Thursday. When asked what message Mr Witkoff would take to Russia and what Vladimir Putin could do to avoid new sanctions, the US president answered: “Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.”
In Kyiv, there is little expectation Mr Witkoff will make a breakthrough with Mr Putin, but a hope that Mr Trump’s changed rhetoric and tougher stance on Moscow may lead to a real change in US support for Ukraine. Sources in Kyiv said they expected Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s Ukraine envoy, to visit the country towards the end of the week, possibly to coincide with Mr Witkoff’s visit to Moscow.
Mr Trump came into office convinced he could do a deal with Mr Putin, but in recent weeks appears to have become increasingly frustrated with Russia’s actions. On Thursday he described its continued attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine as “disgusting” and on Sunday said that two nuclear submarines that he ordered to be deployed after online threats from the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev were now “in the region”, without giving further details.
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Mr Trump had initially announced in July a 50-day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to end the war, but said last week he no longer believed Russia was serious about ending the war and shortened it to “10 or 12” days, later clarified as this Friday, August 8th.
Mr Trump has previously said the new measures he has in mind if the deadline is not met could involve “secondary tariffs” targeting Russia’s remaining trade partners, such as China and India.
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Mykhailo Podolyak, an aide to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said if Russia did not change its course by Friday, Kyiv would expect the “irreversible logistics” of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports to be set in motion.
“After that he’ll look whether this is helping to bring about the end of the war or not, and if not then he will move to the next step,” said Mr Podolyak, in an interview in Kyiv.
The next move, he said, could be further sanctions, and the increased militarisation of Ukraine. “Trump has already said he’s ready to sell Europe as much weapons as they want [to pass to Ukraine]. Before he didn’t say that … This is already a different conception of the world,” he said.
Before that, though, all eyes will be on Mr Witkoff’s visit to Moscow. On previous trips, he has held long one-on-one meetings with Mr Putin and has spoken of his warm feelings for the Russian leader.
The camaraderie has left both Kyiv and other US allies wondering whether Mr Witkoff is capable of delivering harsh messages to Moscow, although his visit this week will be the first since Mr Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine became noticeably harsher.
The Kremlin said on Monday it was “always happy to see Mr Witkoff in Moscow” and a meeting with Mr Putin was possible, the spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He described talks with Mr Witkoff as “important, substantive and very useful”.
Mr Putin said on Friday he was in favour of “a lasting and stable peace on solid foundations that would satisfy both Russia and Ukraine, and would ensure the security of both countries”.
Despite periodically making such statements, Mr Putin has also made clear that Russia’s maximalist war goals remain essentially unchanged, demanding as a minimum control over four Ukrainian regions to which Moscow has laid claim, and a commitment that Ukraine will never join Nato.
Russia continues to target Ukraine with almost nightly drone and missile attacks. Last week was one of the deadliest for some time in terms of civilian casualties, with one set of attacks on Kyiv killing 31 people, including five children.
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Both sides continue to target infrastructure in the opposing country with drones. Russia’s ministry of defence said on Monday its air defences had intercepted 61 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands will contribute €500 million ($579 million) to Ukraine’s defence as part of a US initiative, making it the first Nato country to donate funds through the new programme.
The Dutch package includes missiles for Patriot surface-to-air interceptor units, Mr Zelenskiy said in a post on X. “I am sincerely grateful to the Netherlands for their substantial contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s air shield,” he said. – Guardian, Bloomberg
