Hours after hundreds of his supporters stormed the Iraqi parliament, Moqtada al-Sadr brought an end to a protest that was a thinly veiled warning to his political rivals.
“Your message is received,” the mercurial Shia cleric told his followers. “You terrified the corrupt [his rivals].”
The unrest on Wednesday in Baghdad’s Green Zone, home to government buildings and foreign embassies, underscored the worsening political turmoil in Iraq. Competing factions have failed to agree on the composition of a new government almost 10 months after Sadr’s movement won parliamentary elections.
The bitter stand-off has plunged Iraq into one of its worst crises since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, as the fragile nation has been without a functioning government since October.
The impasse marks the longest period of time it has taken fractious political groups to agree on a new administration since the first US-backed election in 2005. It is preventing Opec’s second-largest oil producer from enjoying the fruits of high crude prices and raising anxiety about further instability. It is also making foreign investors nervous.
“We’re just moving from crisis to crisis, with no clear end in sight to the stalemate,” said a senior government official.
Sadr, an erstwhile militia leader who led the main Shia resistance to the US occupation, draws much of his support from a devoted working-class constituency, which he is able to mobilise on to the streets.
The storming of the parliament by his supporters on Wednesday appeared to be a warning directed at rival political factions more closely aligned to and supported by Iran. The populist Sadr has championed himself as a nationalist who has spoken against foreign meddling in his country, although he has links to Iran and has occasionally sought refuge there.
His supporters’ protest came two days after Sadr’s rivals agreed to a candidate for prime minister — veteran Shia politician and ex-cabinet minister Mohammad Shia’ al-Sudani — and indicated they would now attempt to form a new government.
But Sadr could unleash more protests if his demands are not met. Even if they were able to succeed, the cleric would remain a force in the political system.
Iraq has been blighted by political divisions and a weak fragmented state since it began its experiment with democracy after the fall of Saddam. The political system is designed around sectarian powersharing, but it leads to constant horse-trading between factions competing for top government jobs and sources of patronage. The discord between Sadr and his rivals underscores the increasing fissures within the groups.
Sadr’s frustrations have mounted as his rivals have pushed back against his efforts to sideline them, weaponising the judiciary to issue rulings that hobbled his allies and stalled his progress.
With no end in sight to the stand-off, Sadr last month said he was abandoning negotiations to form a coalition and ordered his 74 MPs to resign from parliament.
The move confounded many. Sadr spent years building political capital to become kingmaker in the often protracted government formation process, but there is still ambiguity about his endgame.
“We really don’t know if he has a strategy,” said one government official and veteran of Iraq’s political scene. “Is he genuinely withdrawing from the process or just waiting for the [Iran-backed factions] to make a mistake, so he can launch his mob on them?”
Amid the paralysis, Iraq is being steered by caretaker prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. But government officials speak of chaos in their ranks, their decisions hamstrung by the dysfunction, and ministries more vulnerable to pillage.
Despite state coffers having been boosted by the unexpected windfall from surging oil prices, no budget was passed for 2022 meaning most of the surplus cannot be spent. Instead, emergency workarounds have been found to stave off shortages of essentials such as petrol and grain.
Sadr has long cast himself as being outside the ruling establishment, despite his movement having a role in the political system. He has previously stirred civil unrest, notably in 2016 when his followers stormed the parliament and the Green Zone.
Some Iraqi analysts say Sadr’s support base has weakened as he has become associated with the endemic corruption in the state, which many people blame for the dire state of public services. But others point out that his operatives are spread across most arms of the state, including in cabinet, the state-owned oil company, powerful ministries and local authorities.
Business heads and analysts say the primary job of the cleric’s operatives is to maintain a cash flow to his organisation by skimming from ministry contracts, what one government official referred to as “creatively redirecting resources”.
One government official cited the emergency spending law passed by parliament in June, pushed by the Sadrists before their resignation, as an example. It allocated 25 trillion Iraqi dinars (€16.9bn) of state funding to urgent needs such as food, fuel and salaries. But it also added 150,000 lifetime public sector jobs, largely to the benefit of his constituents, the official said.
People with direct knowledge of state coffers estimate that Sadr’s movement, which delivers social welfare programmes and includes a militia, requires tens of millions of dollars every month to sustain itself.
Sadr’s political wing did not immediately respond to requests for comment, but has previously denied allegations of corruption.
The allegations against the Sadrists are symptomatic of a system rife with graft and patronage. Virtually all parties are blamed for plundering the state to enrich themselves and their networks.
The political crisis is playing out as social pressures mount. Iraq is fielding hundreds of thousands of graduates every year, reliant upon jobs from a state, the main employer, increasingly unable to keep up with demand.
High oil prices have offered some relief to the state, which struggled to pay public sector salaries two years ago. But many are pessimistic about the country’s long-term prospects.
“There is no state any more,” one senior government official and political veteran said, a sentiment echoed by others. “This is a country purely run on greed and corruption where no one is thinking about the future.” — Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2022
