Middle EastAnalysis

Hizbullah pursues a complicated ‘dual strategy’ amid Israel-Hamas conflict

Lebanese paramilitary organisation is Iran’s most important partner and a central political actor in the region

Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the group had been exchanging fire with Israel since October 8th. Photograph: Sharif Karim/Reuters.

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Michael Jansen
Thu Nov 9 2023 - 21:00

Since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th, Iran, Hizbullah and other regional allies of the Palestinian militant group have sought to contain the ensuing conflict while putting paramilitary pressure on Israel and the US to call a halt to Israel’s onslaught on Gaza.

Hizbullah is by far Iran’s most important partner. Founded by Lebanese Shia clerics during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the movement is a central political actor, provider of welfare to the poor and heavily armed paramilitary organisation with thousands of seasoned fighters.

It regards its forces – which are larger and better armed than the Lebanese army – as Lebanon’s main deterrent against Israeli attack. If Hizbullah enters the Israel-Hamas war it could do great damage to Israel. This would risk an all-out Israeli blitz on Lebanon, which would devastate the crisis-ridden country and undermine Hizbullah’s role as deterrent, political kingmaker and leader of the Shia community, Lebanon’s largest.

Hizbullah is the key non-state actor in the resistance front, which is backed but not given orders by Iran. International Institute of Strategic Studies expert Emile Hokayem told the Guardian, “Iran empowers, it supports, it guides, but it rarely orders” its “partners”. In addition to Hizbullah, these are Shia militia groups dominant in Iraq and the Houthis who are fighting Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Both have made a show of lashing out at Israel and its ally, the US. The Iraqi groups have struck bases housing US troops in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis have launched aborted cruise missiles towards Israel.

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Britain-based Amwaj media reported that Hizbullah has been hailed in Iran for its “dual strategy” of backing Hamas and menacing Israel while containing the exchanges. Amwaj said this approach “highlights Tehran’s own effort to avoid all-out confrontation with Israel while pursuing means to end the Gaza war”.

In his November 3rd speech, the first since the Gaza war began, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah praised Hamas for striking Israel, denied the Gaza militant group had co-ordinated with the resistance front or Iran and said Hizbullah had been exchanging fire with Israel since October 8th.

Beirut’s L’Orient Today has reported that 14 Lebanese civilians, 65 Hizbullah fighters and one Israeli civilian have been killed in the border exchanges. Tens of thousands of residents have fled communities on both sides of the border.

Nasrallah’s deputy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, warned in a BBC interview on Wednesday of serious regional “repercussions” that would be “linked to Israel’s actions”.

Fear of escalation has prompted Washington to dispatch to Beirut Israel-born US envoy Amos Hochstein, who met parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, a Hizbullah ally. On this encounter the Asharq al-Awsat daily reported: “All indications on the Lebanese side confirm that things are still under control, but [Lebanon] cannot guarantee Israel [that this situation will hold].”

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