Israel’s decision over the weekend to stop the flow of goods and equipment into the Gaza Strip is only the first stage of a strategy designed to pressure Hamas into releasing more hostages – particularly among the 24 of the 59 captives still believed to be alive.
Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to resume the war against Hamas if the militant group refuses to accept the latest proposal by US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, but is inclined first to increase the pressure gradually, using other means.
The strategy, dubbed the Hell Plan, includes following up the decision to halt the delivery of humanitarian aid with (again) displacing residents from the northern Gaza Strip to the south, and halting the supply of electricity.
Netanyahu has defended the decision – reportedly co-ordinated in advance with US president Donald Trump’s administration – to stop the humanitarian aid. “Israel has decided to stop letting goods and supplies in to Gaza, something we’ve done for the past 42 days,” he said. “We’ve done that because Hamas steals the supplies and prevents the people of Gaza from getting them. It uses these supplies to finance its terror machine, which is aimed directly at Israel and our civilians – and this we cannot accept.”
He accused Hamas of rejecting the latest Witkoff plan, which calls for extending the ceasefire until mid-April, covering the Muslim holy month of Ramadan (which started at the weekend) and the Jewish Passover festival (which ends on April 19th) with a release of half the hostages at the start of the period and the remaining half after 50 days, the deadline for a permanent settlement.
Hamas rejected extending the first stage of the ceasefire, insisting that additional hostages would only be released in keeping with the agreement that was signed, which calls for an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza at the end of the second stage.
However, Arab diplomatic sources involved in mediation efforts indicated that Hamas has no desire to renew hostilities during Ramadan and is willing to continue to negotiate. All the parties are waiting for Witkoff’s arrival in the region, but no date has been confirmed for that.
Another critical piece of the jigsaw is Tuesday’s Arab summit in Cairo aimed at presenting an alternative to Trump’s radical postwar Gaza plan, which has been rejected unanimously across the Arab world.
Israel’s policy of gradually stepping up the pressure on Hamas is not without risk. The first involves the fate of the hostages. Every day Israeli media air interviews with recently freed hostages and the message is consistent: the days in captivity were “hell on earth” and each day there puts the hostages in greater danger.
The second risk involves Israel’s reputation in the international community. Hamas claims the cutting of aid, even without stopping electricity, is a war crime aimed at starving the Gazan population. Israel claims there are enough supplies in Hamas warehouses to last at least four months, but the turning back of aid lorries is never a good look – even though, this time, the measure has US backing.
There is also a clear political risk for Netanyahu. There is a widespread consensus in Israel that Hamas must be defeated and must never be allowed to rule Gaza again. However, there is an even wider consensus that getting back the hostages, while there is still time, must take priority. The resumption of a war that endangers the hostages and is perceived as an attempt to save Israel’s right-wing coalition will be a hard sell, even for Netanyahu.
